Showing posts with label Lebron James. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Lebron James. Show all posts

Wednesday, March 27, 2013

Defensive Player Of The Year: The Finalists

Every year the NBA all defensive team is littered with all stars that happen to be good defenders, rather than the best defenders in the league (for example Kobe Bryant two years ago). When the voters aren't overrating defenders based on their offensive prowess, they often elect players who gamble to create turnovers rather than making the good defensive play that consistently help their team (i.e. Rajon Rondo). No matter what your bias of choice, it is easy to be swayed towards overrating a players defense based on reasons that do not help his team's defense. Luckily, for us, the viewing public, advanced statistics have provided us with an unbiased (althoug sometimes flawed) way of evaluating defense. Taking these biases into account, combining advanced statistics and my amateur scouting skills I will attempt to clear the murky waters that is NBA defense, and predict the finalists for Defensive Player of the Year.

Larry Sanders
Important Stats:
3.0 Blocks Per Game (leads league), 98 defensive rating (Fourth in NBA min. 1500 minutes), 8.2 block percentage (leads league min 1500 minutes), .57 Points Per Possession allowed against Isolations (11th in NBA)

Larry Sanders is the the gold standard for the development of project big men. After looking more or less completely lost in his first two years, he has been able to harness his athleticism to game changing levels.

His defense is the best example of the flaw in my favorite statistic, defensive rating. Defensive Rating or points allowed per 100 possessions is flawed because it is heavily dependent on teammates, allowing some average defenders to be the statistical beneficiary of good teammates. Although, Sander does play with some solid front court defenders, his back court teammates either can't or won't stop anyone, there-by hurting his defensive rating.

Not only do Monta Ellis (106 Defensive Rating) and Brandon Jennings (108 defensive rating) play matador defense, but their constant barrage of long two's clanking off the back iron, lead to an increase in run out opportunities for opponents.  When the Black Hole brothers bother to engage defensively they often go for steals, essentially removing themselves from their rotations. In other words his guard teammates make life much harder on Sanders. Larry Sanders' shot blocking prowess is routinely the only thing deterring opposing guards from a dribble drive parade to the rim, and the Bucks would be lost without him.

Sanders' probably won't win the defensive player of the year since it routinely goes to players on the top defensive teams. Despite this he will be in the conversation for years to come with his never ending motor and can do attitude.


Joakim Noah
Important Stats:
98 defensive rating (tied with Sanders),  4 shots have been attempted against him closing out on a pick and roll (0 baskets made), 2.2 Blocks Per Game (6th in NBA), 11.4 Rebounds Per Game (7th in NBA), 4.7 Win Shares (2nd in NBA)

The most important statistic for Joakim Noah (besides hair length) is not an individual one. The Chicago Bulls are third in the league at .85 points per possession allowed make no mistake, Noah is the driving force behind that number. What Noah has done leading a team comprised of many veteran castoffs to the third best defense, is truly remarkable.

What's more impressive is the minutes per game he produces this stellar defensive for. While Noah is tied with Larry Sanders as far as defensive rating, he does so playing 37.7 minutes per game to Sander's 27.

Although Noah is no slouch at 2.2 Blocks per game his contributions are more prevalent in preventing shots from even being attempted. His defensive rotations especially on the pick and roll are among the best in the games history. This is difficult to measure statistically since this is obvious to opposing teams, who simply avoid running the pick and roll against him.

Every basketball player knows that no defensive possession is complete without securing a defensive rebound (unless you force a turnover). Noah's ability to recover to the paint after pressuring the ball handler in the pick and roll, shows agility uncommon among men his size. After recovering ,his proficiency in ending defensive positions by securing the ball should also be considered when discussing defensive MVP.

Like Sanders, Noahs love for the defensive end of the court is infectious, often leading to bouts of awkward dancing/celebrations.



Avery Bradley
Important Stats:
.69 Points Per Possession (12th in NBA), only 23 attempts by opponents guarded while coming off screens, Celtics defense is 1.6 Point Per Possession better with him on the court, 102.1 D rating with Bradley injured 98.1 after he returned.

Maybe Bradley's inclusion on this list has to do with a bias of mine, (I did write a post on him being my favorite Celtic, after all). However, the reason he is my favorite player does coincide with why he is a defensive player of the year candidate, he gives 100% effort all the time, especially on defense.

If a statistic was kept on times a defender guarded his man full court, I suspect Bradley would lead it by a wide margin. With the talent level in the NBA, picking up a ball handler for the entire length of the court is usually a recipe for disaster. In Bradley's case his quickness strength and effort make it a disaster for opposing offenses. His ball pressure forces opponents to start their offense with half the shot clock already gone, making it exceedingly more easy for his teammates to get stops.

His elite defense is not solely a function of his on ball pressure, Bradley is as complete a wing defender as there is in the NBA. If you watch closely, you will realize that his ability to navagate opposing screens  is actually more impressive than his full court pressure. His skill at following his man through reminds one of a running back, in that he turns his shoulders to get through the smallest of spaces to prevent his charge from seperating.

A lot of Boston fans came to the conclusion that Rajon Rondo was the problem when the team went on a winning streak after his injury. Another explanation for their strong play during this stretch was that Avery Bradley was finally healthy, allowing the Celtics to return to the defense that made them elite. After returning Bradley has increased Boston's defense by 4 points per 100 possessions. This happened despite the loss of Rondo, who was an all NBA defensive first teamer the year previous.

Unfortunately, I was not able to find a humorous gif to pair with Bradley. Amusing on court antics just aren't his thing. Avery is a quiet unassuming guy, who turns on opponents with the tenacity of a pit bull, which happens to be the moniker Bradley and Courtney Lee took to when they became Celtics starters. Nope, no amusing dances here, just mean, nasty, tough defense.

Paul George
Important Stats:
5.9 Defensive Win Shares (1st in NBA), 96 Defensive Rating (3rd in NBA min 1500 minutes), 3 points per 100 possessions less are allowed when he is on the court

Usually when a player makes the leap offensively after being considered a very good defender early in his career, everyone assumes his defense makes the leap as well. Whether or not this is true, depends on the case, but regardless scoring more points usually will help a player's defensive reputation by causing more media attention to be brought his way. In this case, George might not be one of the best defensive players, but being the best player on the best defensive team will certainly garner him votes.

That is not to say George's numbers indicate that he is every bit the defender as any names on this list. His number one ranking in defensive win shares, indicates that his defense has created more wins for his team than any others. Although this isn't the greatest metric, being ranked first in any advanced defensive statistic is a feat.

Defensively he is behind only Tim Duncan in rating. However, Tim Duncan being in the twilight of his career (i.e. playing less games and minutes) will preclude him from getting many all defensive votes. Roy Hibbert has the same defensive rating as George, but rarely are two players from the same team finalists for DPoY. All things being equal, the voters will go with the better offensive players, in this case the edge goes to George.

Paul George is a freak of nature. WIth the length of a power forward but the quickness of a shooting guard, he is able to guard multiple positions, often taking the other team's best player and making life difficult for him. His defensive instincts aren't elite but most of the time it doesn't matter due to his unique athletic gifts. The Scary part is, George has only scratched the surface of what he will be as a defender in the NBA. With better positioning on defensive rotations in the future, I'm sure I'll be able to find a better gif than him blocking a helpless, ground bound (i.e. white) JJ Redick.



Chris Paul
Important stats:
2.4 Steals per game (1st in NBA), Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan's defensive rating:101

Fans love steals, pretty much every single year the finalist for the defensive player of the year is tops in the league in steals. Chris Paul leads the league in steals, especially those of the spectacular variety. He makes the type of defensive plays that stand out in the minds of anyone to watch the game, this alone will get him votes.

Besides being probably the best in the game at pilfering the rock. Paul has lead the transition to the Clippers being an excellent defensive team. Without his instruction Blake Griffin and DeAndre Jordan, would probably still be running around on defense like chickens with their heads cut off. Instead, both have taken a leap forward defensively, posting career bests in defensive ratings. Griffin's rise has been all the more impressive when you consider he lacks elite length or width to alter shots and occupy a wide area in the paint.

Despite Cp3's defensive rating numbers being far from elite, he is an elite defender. In his case Lob City's constant track meet pace makes it more difficult to produce elite defensive numbers. Don't make the mistake of looking at his 102 rating and believing him to be a slightly above average defender, he is the engine that makes this team go both on defense and the offense their defense creates. Realize that almost every  run out seen on sports center was created by the strong team defense that Paul has instituted in LA.

Although Paul, is one of the best in the game at picking pockets, and has orchestrated the defensive improvements in a number of young players, he is not perfect. Occasionally he is guilty of a flop, apparently overacting in the Hollywood area is contagious.


Just missing the cut: Lebron James, Tyson Chandler. Roy Hibbert, Tim Duncan, Serge Ibaka, Kevin Garnett, Tony Allen, Marc Gasol. All of these players fall into one of the following categories that excluded them from the finalist list: being too old/injured, not bringing enough to the table offensively to get noticed making the spectacular play at the expense of sound defensive rotations or having an offense so potent that consistent defensive effort isn't needed.

Monday, March 18, 2013

San Antonio Spurs: The NBA's best Chance at Knocking off the Heat



The Miami Heat have become an unstoppable force to end the NBA season. Having won their last 22 games has cemented them as one of the hottest teams in history. As the defending champions they have always been the favorites this year but that point has been hammered home during this win streak. LeBron James is clearly the best player in the game, this has been true for several years and will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future. Dwyane Wade is again playing like the top five player that he was before teaming up with LeBron ( and taking a back seat). The Heat are playing the type of basketball that could lead to them breaking the record for wins in a row.

Miami has shown that no one can stop them in the East if they are at their best. The last time they played in a rematch against the 2012 NBA Finals Western conference foes, they beat up Thunder en route to a blow out. That isn't to say that the Heat winning a title is forgone conclusion, I believe one team will stand in their way, The San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are one of the few teams in the league that match up well with the Heat, to see why you just need look at the stats and he weaknesses they point out.


Rebounding 
Statistic
Miami Heat 2500 Total Rebounds, Last in the NBA

This is the most deceiving of the Heat's weaknesses. Eric Spoelstra has always been a coach who emphasized getting back on defense first and offensive rebounding second, so their lack of rebounding is in part designed.
San Antonio subscribes to the same rebounding philosophy. With the Heat having one of the most explosive fast break attacks in the league, getting back on defense becomes all the more essential. That doesn't mean that Spurs can't crash one or two players to the glass to take advantage of Miami's woeful defensive rebounding.

Miami's rebounding problems can be broken down to two factors. First, a lack of rebounding from their bigs, specifically all star Chris Bosh (12.6 rebounding percentage, good for 7th on the team). Second, and most importantly, their rotating defense causes their big men to blitz screens and defend on the perimeter making it so a lot of defensive rebounds come down to a guard/wing attempting to box out the other teams big man.

The best way to beat any defense is ball movement, which the Spurs excel at (first in the league in assists) but against a trapping defense it becomes even more important. With San Antonio's ability to move the ball Miami will find itself more out of position for rebounds than normal, allowing the front court players Popovich does send to the glass to excel. Tiago Splitter, Tim Duncan and even DeJuan Blair (the three best rotation offensive rebounders), will find the gaps in the Miami rotation and be a big threat on the glass against Miami.


Interior Scoring
Statistic:
Heat percentage of close shots taken by PF, C: 31%, 38%
Opponents percentage of close shots taken by PF, C: 38%, 51%
Spurs' percentage of close shots taken by PF, C: 37%, 50%

The Heat lack a post presence, both offensively and defensively. Their best interrior player, Chris Bosh, has the offensive skill set of a small forward. Their offense is founded upon the idea of spacing the floor with shooters in order to allow LeBron James and Dwyane Wade the space to drive to the hoop. The Heat thrive by pulling shot blockers away from the hoop, creating lanes to the basket. It is for this reason that the Heat struggle against zone defenses, that keep their shot blockers in and around the painted area.

San Antonio is one of the most disciplined defenses in the league, lead by the league leader in defensive rating, Tim Duncan. The Spurs will zone up, staying home in the paint on rotations leaving Wade and James little room to drive to the hoop. Even when the Spurs play man to man defense against the Heat, their help principles have much in common with a zone.

The best way to defeat a collapsing match up zone type defense that the Spurs will throw at Miami is to get the ball inside to break down the zone, then throw the ball out for open shots. Miami's lack of interior scoring will make shots difficult, forcing LeBron into many ill advised shots. If Miami can not manufacture shots close to the basket to break down San Antonio's defense expect LeBron to develop a fake injury reminiscent of elbow injuries past, en route to missing a ton of contested jumpers.

Fouls
Statistic:
Miami Heat .208 Free Throws per Field Goal Attempted, 19th in NBA

If you adjust for the pace that they play at (shockingly slow at 23rd in the league even after factoring in James and Wade's breakouts) the Miami Heat are near the bottom third in the league in fouls committed per shot attempted. Now this number is considerably more perplexing when you consider that fouls are almost never called on LeBron or Flash, a combined 3.7 fouls over 72.9 minutes a game.

The Spurs play at a much faster pace than the Heat are comfortable with. With the increased number of possessions the Heat's fouls will probably increase. If the Spurs are able to get the ball inside and challenge the Heat's size deficiency they have a good chance to have the Heat  at a bigger size disadvantage than their normal tiny front court.

Yes Lebron and Wade are great, but if their teammates are ushering the Spurs to the free throw line, their chance of victory plummets. With the Spurs combination of size, speed and ball movement San Antonio could force Miami into a lot of fouls.


Lack of Attempts
Statistic
Heat 5092 Field Goals attempted, last in NBA

The Heat are the best shooting team in the league, leading the NBA with a .548 effective field goal rate. They  take a lot of good shots and knock them down at a great rate. However, they have compiled these numbers against a worse than average schedule (25th in the NBA). Against, more difficult playoff competition the Heat might not have as easy a time scoring.

In the playoffs, defense is taken to the next level. At the same time due to the importance of the games, each possession becomes that much more vital. Regardless, of how good teams shoot, it is important to get as many scoring opportunities as possible. With the Heat lacking in both pace and rebounding they do not create the extra shots that can be the difference between winning and losing in the playoffs.

The Spurs on the other hand, are 7th in the league in pace, they are 19th in total rebounds both far superior to Miami's numbers in these categories. These extra possessions in the NBA finals will force the Heat and Lebron short of their ultimate goal. If the Heat are to lose in the playoffs these concern areas will be their undoing.



Saturday, March 9, 2013

What has happened during the Heat's Winning Streak

With a 102-93 win over the Sixers last night, The Heat stretched their winning streak to 17 games. They haven't lost since February 1st, when they dropped a 102-89 decision to Indiana, who they just happen to play on Sunday. Seeing as it has now been 36 days since they lost, I decided to take a look at what has gone on in the world since the Heat last lost. You might be surprised.


1. The Harlem Shake Took Off, and then annoyed us all:

 
(Mario Chalmers wins this video for dressing like Super Mario.)



 2. Winter Storm Nemo dropped up to 40 inches on the Northeast on February 8th, and destroyed my will to live. I never want to shovel again.

 
(Stop mocking me with that smile.)

3. Lebron James has scored 476 points in their 17 wins(good for 28/game). That is more points scored than 57 players have total for this year who have played forty games this year and averaged at least 20 minutes a game. Thank you to hoopdata.com for being amazing so that I didn't have to do massive amounts of math.

(This is starting to get boring. Wait, nope, no it isn't.)
4. Lovers everywhere went out on the town for Valentine's Day. Yup, seems like forever ago doesn't it? 
(Where do you think these two lovebirds went?)
5. The Groundhog predicted that winter would be over soon. Yeah, how about you shovel the snow in driveway you ugly rat. (Still not over the shoveling).
(Bill, I hate him too.)
6. People continued to hate Skip Bayless. And for once(and probably the only time), I agreed with Richard Sherman.
 ("I'm better at life than you". Well yes, but not that hard to do.)
7. Chris Bosh kept photo bombing people. 
  (I WANT TO HATE YOU CHRIS. BUT I CAN'T. I JUST CAN'T.)
8. The Superbowl happened
 (Who turned the lights out?)
The Heat do have a difficult schedule coming up, with games against Indiana and Atlanta, both playoff teams in the East. Needless to say though, alot of time has passed since the Heat have last lost, and they have shown they can beat anyone. Whose to say they can't run the table?(homer alert!)

THAT GUY. THAT GUY SAYS THEY WON'T.
(I hope.)
-Bford
  
 
 
 

Tuesday, January 29, 2013

Power Rankings Week 14

1. San Antonio Spurs 36-11
-This team is 5th in offensive efficiency and 4th in defensive efficiency.  Their incredible balance offensively is led by MVP candidate Tony Parker and the still great Tim Duncan. This team is not as explosive as OKC or LAC but they limit their mistakes while exploiting their opponents weaknesses.  The truest team in the NBA. (AL)

2. Oklahoma City Thunder 36-11
-The Thunder are the best team in the league.The Spurs have the best record but Every year they cruise during the regular season and falter in the playoffs. They remind me of the Patriots, excuse me while I have a good cry. (EJ)

3. Los Angeles Clippers 33-13
-When does the Chris Paul injury become an issue? He has missed their last five games and the Clippers are staring an eight game road trip in the face. (BF)

4. Miami Heat 28-13
-Despite the loss to the Celtics, the Heat were able to shake it off with a nice visit to the White House. You have to think this team has two or three more gears come playoff time. (BF)

(Kudos to the Coach who went Bow-Tie to the White House.)


5. Chicago Bulls 27-17
-Rose is ramping his activity up from predictable contact to “more contact”. Thanks for insight coach Thibbs. How quickly Rose can come back will greatly effect the Bulls, not just because of how good he is but because he needs time to mesh with teammates. (EJ)




6. New York Knicks 27-15
-The Knicks have been playing uneven basketball, but all six of their next opponents are under .500 on the season so expect them to rip off some wins in the near future. Melo had one of his best games of the season on Sunday going off for 42 including 9 of 12 from deep, a huge relief for Knickerbocker fans who had seen Melo fall into a shooting slump of late. (AL)

7. Brooklyn Nets 27-18
-After winning 10 of 11 this team has dropped two straight to Memphis and Houston, but fear not Nets fans, this team is for real and will challenge the Knicks for the division.  It's also a shame that Brook Lopez wasn't originally chosen for the all star team, but i expect him to replace Rondo on the East squad. (AL)

8. Golden State Warriors 27-17
-The return of Andrew Bogut is huge. Filling your biggest void on defense with a borderline all-star(when healthy), makes the Warriors a huge dark horse in the West. I don't want think any team wants the upstart Warriors in round 1. (BF)

9. Memphis Grizzlies 29-15
-The trade has allowed them to keep intact their starting five for the remainder of the season.  I'm not sure if they have the depth to truly compete, but this starting 5 is very dangerous at a +114 plus/minus on the season. (AL)

10. Denver Nuggets 28-18
-The Nuggets are finally looking like the team we expected. They are running defending and dunking. Last night they showed that they could win in a slowed down game against an elite defensive team. It might have only been one win but it’s a huge step in their maturation process. (EJ)

(While the Nuggets don't scare anyone, their defense can be stifling.)


11. Indiana Pacers 26-19
-The maturation process of Paul George is an ongoing thing. Last night he tried to elevate himself from star, to superstar who makes buzzer beaters. What happened? Iguodala swallowed him up and they lost the game. (EJ)

12. Atlanta Hawks 25-19
-A twenty seven point comeback is a huge moral victory, but there is no secret that this team is hurting for a perimeter scorer. You can't depend on Kyle Korver getting hot every game come playoff time. (BF)

13. Milwaukee Bucks 23-19
-As everyone knows I am not a huge Bucks fan. However, last night Zach Lowe mentioned them as a possible landing spot for Pierce. This only happens if they get hot and look like a contender. If Boston getting Larry Sanders means rooting for Milwaukee, all I have to say is FEAR THE DEER! (EJ)

(Could Jennings be moved in the next three weeks?


14. Utah Jazz 24-21
-As soon as I get back on the Jazz bandwagon, they lose by 100 to the Rockets at home. One day it looks like they will be adding a piece for a the stretch run, the next they look like a team poised for a youth movement. Too bad it’s not acceptable for my analysis of this team to be “Hell if I know”. (EJ)

15. Houston Rockets 25-22
-Hanging onto the 8th seed, the ever streaky Rockets having won 3 of their last 4 have some tough test in their next five games including tilts at Utah, at Denver, home against Golden State and at Miami.  This is a crucial stretch for their playoff hopes, splitting these games would be a nice win for this team. (AL)

16. Portland Trailblazers 22-22
-As any team with no bench is wont to do they look great some games and completely worn out in others. In the NBA bench players often play better at home where they have the support of the crowd. Portland is 15-8 at home, if they can turn around their road woes by improved bench play watch out. (EJ)

17. Los Angeles Lakes 19-25
-Okay, so now the solution is Kobe needs to be more of a facilitator. Short term, this is working. Long term? History shows Mr. Bryant is going to get the shots when he wants them. (BF)

18. Boston Celtics 21-23
-Rondo's injury certainly dampened any enjoyment the C's had in winning a double OT thriller against the Heat, but never count out a team that has two future hall of famers suiting up.  With KG and Pierce on board, this team can still play with anyone. (AL)

19. Dallas Mavericks 19-25
-Four games back of the 8th seed, the Mavs find themselves in a tough spot.  They know they can't beat the elite in a series, but they could sneak into the playoffs.  Are they sellers or buyers? With Cuban at the helm, I say they buy. (AL)

(Expect the Mavericks to be dealing this deadline.)


20. Philadelphia 76ers 18-26
-I am going to continue to gush over Jrue Holiday.  In January he is averaging 21.2 points, 9.1 assists, 4.4 rebound, and nearly 2 steals, all while shooting slightly above 48% from the field. (AL)

21. Detroit Pistons 17-27
-Like most young teams Detroit is better at home. Anytime they get a road win it is another step in their progression. The last such step had Brandon Knight leading his team with 31 in a win against Orlando. (EJ)

22. Minnesota Timberwolves 17-24
-The Timberwolves are 1-9 in their last ten games. Normally this would signal time to shed contract and rebuild. Unfortunately, the Wolves injured players can’t be traded and since all their players are injured they will have to weather this Minnesota style blizzard of injuries.(EJ)
23. Sacramento Kings 17-29
-It gets very bogged down this low in the league, but the Kings have played average basketball. It's unreal how much Demarcus Cousins can contribute to a game even if he doesn't care. Imagine what he could do if he did. (BF)

24. Toronto Raptors 16-29
-This team will be the most interesting sellers at the deadline as they decide who move forward with at PG (Calderon or Lowry) and try to find a trading partner for Bargnani's contract.  The team continues to play on an average level, but right now all eyes are on the front office. (AL)

25. New Orleans Hornets 15-29
-I can't help but have fun watching this team despite them being 4th to last in defensive efficiency.  Anthony Davis keeps showing signs of the franchise player he could be.  I think he'll have a monster post all star break, averaging a double-double in his final 30 games. (AL)

(Davis is about two years away from being something really special.)


26. Orlando Magic 14-30
-The Magic are getting bit by the "basketball gods" according to J.J. Redick. I think it might be that the lack of talent has finally caught up the Magic. Expect them to be in sell mode. (BF)

27. Phoenix Suns 15-30
-The Suns are 3-7 in their last ten, and can't seem to put two good halves together. They have been rumored to be interested in Rudy Gay, but what could they give back? (BF)

28. Washington Wizards 11-32
-The Wizards are quietly 6-4 in their last ten games. However, it is time to fire Randy Whitman. His late game choices(bringing in a cold player to guard the ball handler in the last minute of the game) are costing them wins. (BF)

29. Cleveland Cavaliers 13-32
-Kyrie Irving is the reigning eastern conference player of the week. He has shown that he can lead his team to wins despite the cast around him. His play moves them up the list on his own. (EJ)

30. Charlotte Bobcats 11-33
-The Bobcats are 4-28 in their last 32. And yes I will keep using that stat. Because every other stat shows that they are just as bad. (BF)




-Bford