San Antonio Spurs: The NBA's best Chance at Knocking off the Heat

The Miami Heat have become an unstoppable force to end the NBA season. Having won their last 22 games has cemented them as one of the hottest teams in history. As the defending champions they have always been the favorites this year but that point has been hammered home during this win streak. LeBron James is clearly the best player in the game, this has been true for several years and will continue to be the case for the foreseeable future. Dwyane Wade is again playing like the top five player that he was before teaming up with LeBron ( and taking a back seat). The Heat are playing the type of basketball that could lead to them breaking the record for wins in a row.

Miami has shown that no one can stop them in the East if they are at their best. The last time they played in a rematch against the 2012 NBA Finals Western conference foes, they beat up Thunder en route to a blow out. That isn't to say that the Heat winning a title is forgone conclusion, I believe one team will stand in their way, The San Antonio Spurs. The Spurs are one of the few teams in the league that match up well with the Heat, to see why you just need look at the stats and he weaknesses they point out.


Rebounding 
Statistic
Miami Heat 2500 Total Rebounds, Last in the NBA

This is the most deceiving of the Heat's weaknesses. Eric Spoelstra has always been a coach who emphasized getting back on defense first and offensive rebounding second, so their lack of rebounding is in part designed.
San Antonio subscribes to the same rebounding philosophy. With the Heat having one of the most explosive fast break attacks in the league, getting back on defense becomes all the more essential. That doesn't mean that Spurs can't crash one or two players to the glass to take advantage of Miami's woeful defensive rebounding.

Miami's rebounding problems can be broken down to two factors. First, a lack of rebounding from their bigs, specifically all star Chris Bosh (12.6 rebounding percentage, good for 7th on the team). Second, and most importantly, their rotating defense causes their big men to blitz screens and defend on the perimeter making it so a lot of defensive rebounds come down to a guard/wing attempting to box out the other teams big man.

The best way to beat any defense is ball movement, which the Spurs excel at (first in the league in assists) but against a trapping defense it becomes even more important. With San Antonio's ability to move the ball Miami will find itself more out of position for rebounds than normal, allowing the front court players Popovich does send to the glass to excel. Tiago Splitter, Tim Duncan and even DeJuan Blair (the three best rotation offensive rebounders), will find the gaps in the Miami rotation and be a big threat on the glass against Miami.


Interior Scoring
Statistic:
Heat percentage of close shots taken by PF, C: 31%, 38%
Opponents percentage of close shots taken by PF, C: 38%, 51%
Spurs' percentage of close shots taken by PF, C: 37%, 50%

The Heat lack a post presence, both offensively and defensively. Their best interrior player, Chris Bosh, has the offensive skill set of a small forward. Their offense is founded upon the idea of spacing the floor with shooters in order to allow LeBron James and Dwyane Wade the space to drive to the hoop. The Heat thrive by pulling shot blockers away from the hoop, creating lanes to the basket. It is for this reason that the Heat struggle against zone defenses, that keep their shot blockers in and around the painted area.

San Antonio is one of the most disciplined defenses in the league, lead by the league leader in defensive rating, Tim Duncan. The Spurs will zone up, staying home in the paint on rotations leaving Wade and James little room to drive to the hoop. Even when the Spurs play man to man defense against the Heat, their help principles have much in common with a zone.

The best way to defeat a collapsing match up zone type defense that the Spurs will throw at Miami is to get the ball inside to break down the zone, then throw the ball out for open shots. Miami's lack of interior scoring will make shots difficult, forcing LeBron into many ill advised shots. If Miami can not manufacture shots close to the basket to break down San Antonio's defense expect LeBron to develop a fake injury reminiscent of elbow injuries past, en route to missing a ton of contested jumpers.

Fouls
Statistic:
Miami Heat .208 Free Throws per Field Goal Attempted, 19th in NBA

If you adjust for the pace that they play at (shockingly slow at 23rd in the league even after factoring in James and Wade's breakouts) the Miami Heat are near the bottom third in the league in fouls committed per shot attempted. Now this number is considerably more perplexing when you consider that fouls are almost never called on LeBron or Flash, a combined 3.7 fouls over 72.9 minutes a game.

The Spurs play at a much faster pace than the Heat are comfortable with. With the increased number of possessions the Heat's fouls will probably increase. If the Spurs are able to get the ball inside and challenge the Heat's size deficiency they have a good chance to have the Heat  at a bigger size disadvantage than their normal tiny front court.

Yes Lebron and Wade are great, but if their teammates are ushering the Spurs to the free throw line, their chance of victory plummets. With the Spurs combination of size, speed and ball movement San Antonio could force Miami into a lot of fouls.


Lack of Attempts
Statistic
Heat 5092 Field Goals attempted, last in NBA

The Heat are the best shooting team in the league, leading the NBA with a .548 effective field goal rate. They  take a lot of good shots and knock them down at a great rate. However, they have compiled these numbers against a worse than average schedule (25th in the NBA). Against, more difficult playoff competition the Heat might not have as easy a time scoring.

In the playoffs, defense is taken to the next level. At the same time due to the importance of the games, each possession becomes that much more vital. Regardless, of how good teams shoot, it is important to get as many scoring opportunities as possible. With the Heat lacking in both pace and rebounding they do not create the extra shots that can be the difference between winning and losing in the playoffs.

The Spurs on the other hand, are 7th in the league in pace, they are 19th in total rebounds both far superior to Miami's numbers in these categories. These extra possessions in the NBA finals will force the Heat and Lebron short of their ultimate goal. If the Heat are to lose in the playoffs these concern areas will be their undoing.

The East Starting Line Up has VH1 Reality Show Written All Over It

The All-Star Starters were announced last night, with no real surprises when looking at the star power. You can see the final voting numbers here.

While the West has a bunch of LA bros and Kevin Durant, who no one seems to hate, the East is a different story. Lebron James, Carmello Anthony, Kevin Garnett, Rajon Rondo, and Dwyane Wade will walk out for the East on February 17th, and there isn't alot of love between these guys.

        

(What I would do to have these five living together.)

Rondo and Wade have been at odds since Wade helped take apart his shoulder, and things got interesting after this year's opener when Wade called Rondo cheap. Garnett and Carmello have been arguing over what their favorite cereal is, and Lebron James who seems to have everyone's love these days is right in the middle.

 If the NBA wants to cash in on this, they should make the five starters on each team stay in a "Real World" like house for the weekend, with the cameras rolling. Here are a few things you can expect to happen in the East House. 

• Rondo and Wade will play NBA2k against one another, halfway through Wade will break Rondo's controller, but then Rondo will bump the TV and ruin the game for everyone. 

• When Carmelo comes down for breakfast, Garnett will be eating the last bowl of Honey Nut Cheerios.

• Garnett will start talking trash to Lebron during an innocent game of beirut. Lebron will go on to make 46 straight shots without changing the expression on his face.

• When they go out to the bars, Garnett and Carmelo will get into a war of words, and their friends will hold them back even though it was obvious they will never fight. When Carmelo returns home, he will wait for Garnett outside his bedroom, with Rondo lurking weirdly around the situation.

• By the second day everyone will realize how much Rondo doesn't like other human being when he actively ignores the chore wheel. 

• Lebron will make sure to shake hands with everyone after everything, whether he came out above or not.

•  Things will get really awkward when everyone else realizes that not only NBA.com's cameras are following them around, but James Dolan is also taping his own version of the show. 

 

(Do you think they pass it to each other even once?)

Reality show or not, expect things to get a little weird when the East takes the court on the 17th. To prepare yourself, just watch a Kings game.


-Bford

 

Clippers vs. Heat- Who Wins?

One of the best barometers of how good you are as a team is to put yourself up against the best competition. Right now in the NBA, the Miami Heat are just that. The champs will be the team that everyone will test themselves on until they are knocked off the top. And while the Heat are 20-8 and Lebron James seems to be cruising towards another MVP, there has been another team in the NBA that teams are looking up at: The Los Angeles Clippers. Long the little brother in LA, the Clippers are in the midst of a 16 game win streak, and will try to push that to 17 tonight against Utah at home. Everyone has started to take notice, including cross town rival Kobe Bryant: 

"To put together win streaks that are that long, it shows a lot of focus, it shows a lot of unity and a lot of depth because they can beat you multiple ways," Bryant continued. "If you're going to have a winning streak that's that extensive, you have to have guys coming in from all aspects of the game."

(ESPN, 12/30/12)

The Clippers have looked like one of the most complete teams in basketball, and I haven't hid my affinity for them on the blog or within our podcast(Episode 2 comes out tomorrow, and trust me, I do alot of gushing.) Their bench is first in the league in scoring, and many are saying that Jamal Crawford should be in the consideration for an all-star bid, even though he has not started a game yet. So while this is looking a bit ahead, what if the Clippers met the Heat in the finals. In a hypothetical seven game series, who wins?

(Lebron James and Chris Paul would certainly have alot to say within the Clips/Heat matchup.)

Point Guard:  Chris Paul Vs. Mario Chalmers

-The point guard matchup could very well be where the Clippers find their edge. While Chalmers is by no means a slouch, and has fit well into the scheme of the Heat's offense since last year, Chris Paul is Chris Paul. The best point guard in the game has corralled all of the offensive weapons at his disposal, and has caused the careers of players like DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin and Eric Bledsoe take a huge leap.

EDGE: CLIPPERS

Shooting Guard: Willie Green Vs. Dwyane Wade

-While this most likely won't be Willie Green in the finals(Chauncey Billups, once healthy or even Crawford will most likely see starter minutes), it doesn't matter with Wade sitting on the other side. Wade can play excellent defense when he wants too, and is built for the playoff style: Slower pace and one-on-one execution. While the Clippers will end up throwing alot at Wade, he still get the edge.

(Despite some regression within his game, Dwyane Wade is still built for playoff basketball.)

EDGE: HEAT

Small Forward: Lebron James Vs. Caron Butler

-Caron Butler has been everything the Clippers have wanted from him. A steady veteran averaging 10 points in the 23 minutes per game who doesn't complain about is role. Butler is an above average defender, and has to be given respect anywhere on the floor with his jumper. But, come on, is this even an argument?

EDGE: HEAT 

Power Forward: Udonis Haslem/Shane Battier Vs. Blake Griffin

-Depending on the matchup, the Heat have decided to play either Haslem or Battier opposite of Lebron thus far in the season(Haslem has started 10 games, Battier 15 and also averages 8 more minutes per game as well). You would most likely see Udonis here, who would have to take on the challenge of guarding Blake. While you would expect to see Lebron take some hits at Griffin as well, I don't see a scenario where a Haslem/Battier combination can keep Blake at bay all game. He has improved his jump shot, and has even showed a nice fade away that has been included into his post game. Even more important, Blake doesn't seem as afraid to go to the foul line this year. He's shooting a low 63%, but it is a career high. In the end, it's tough to pick against the highlight reel.

(Blake Griffin looks to take another step in the right direction towards a title.)

EDGE: CLIPPERS

Center: Chris Bosh Vs. DeAndre Jordan

-Two years ago, this isn't even a discussion. Last year, you could create somewhat of an argument. This year, you could easily either way. Bosh is certainly the better offensive player, averaging 17PPG to DeAndre's 10. They are even in both rebounds and blocks, but Jordan has shown more talent in defending other Centers. While Joel Anthony would definitely see more minutes in this series, he probably isn't on the floor in big minutes. Would Chris Bosh, a full 30 pounds lighter than Jordan, be able to handle him down low? At this point, I still think Bosh has the edge, but it is very close, and could be different come June.

EDGE: HEAT

Bench: Clippers: Eric Bledsoe/ Jamal Crawford/Matt Barnes/Lamar Odom/Ronny Turiaf/ Chauncey Billups/ Grant Hill

              Heat: Joel Anthony/Ray Allen/Norris Cole/Mike Miller/Rashard Lewis/Udonis Haslem OR Shane Battier

-When looking at the two lists above, you see alot of proven veterans looking to win a title later in their career. The Heat's bench looked great early. Ray Allen looked healthy, Mike Miller was filling into the role of backup defensive stopper, and Norris Cole showed competency in running an offense. Since then? Allen's shooting has regressed(36% shooting in the last ten games), Miller has looked a step slow on defense, and Cole hasn't created enough of a presence on the offensive end to make defenses worry about him. One stat sums it up, The Clippers bench is currently ranked 1st in the league in scoring and 12th in defense, Miami's is 23rd in scoring and 29th on defense. 

(Eric Bledsoe could be a huge trade piece come next season with how well he has played.)

EDGE: CLIPPERS

-With the score being even, I believe the Clippers bench gives them the edge as of now. Lebron and Wade will certaintly have their way with some of these defenders, but the Clippers have the depth to show them many different defensive looks, and also have a huge edge on players who can create shots on their own. Beyond that, a team with Griffin/Jordan/Odom/Barnes is going to a nightmare for the Heat in terms of rebounding. If the Heat and Clippers met today, I think it comes out close, but I'd go Clippers in 7. Let me know what you think in the comments.

Next week, my division round ups will return, I apologize for not getting them up this week but we wanted to make sure to get up some posts up about individual players as well(Check out our pieces on Russell Westbrook and DeMarcus Cousins.) Also, make sure to look out for our power rankings tomorrow.

Until next time, here is your NBA YouTube Clip! 

-Bford