The Rockets are hanging onto the 8th seed by a single game, but as we saw last night in their 140 point (yes 140 points in 48 minutes) effort against the Warriors, this team is possibly the most explosive offensive team in the league. In this Southwest Division roundup, let's take a look at the Rockets chances moving forward.
Harden and the Rockets were raining threes last night
While I don't want to harp on what they did last night, as it is only a single game, let me start out by sharing a few quick statistics from that game. First off, the tied the all time NBA record with 23 three point field goals as a team. They did this in a whopping 40 attempts for a 57.5% clip. They had 34 assists as a team on 46 field goals, with 3 players having 7 or more. As would b expected but it still fun to see on a boxscore, they had 8 players in double figures with another at a "lowly" 9 points. Jeremy Lin may have had is best game of the year scoring 28 and dishing out 9 dimes, but most remarkably, having a +37 points while he was on the floor.
Okay so again, last night was only one game, but it shows us how many weapons this team does have. They have their star and franchise player in James Harden, the have an elite rebounding big man with quality touch around the basket offensively in Omer Asik, and they have a bunch of good core guys. What is this team missing? They are missing that second star, the player who could take the game over for stretches so that the franchise guy doesn't always have that burden. The team has the pieces to go out and acquire a player like Josh Smith or Al Jefferson/Paul Milsap, but really would it be worth it to ship out this young talent? I Think not, at least not yet. With players like Chandler Parsons, Patrick Patterson, and Jeremy Lin, players who will never be stars, but are very good pieces for a team to have, they have a strong core. Then they have the prospects, players that have sky high potential. Marcus Morris has the shooting ability and athleticism to be a really good forward in the league. He doesn't project as a potential star either, but a player who can really fill up a boxscore. Then there is the very raw Dontas Motiejunas, who could be both a complete bust or a star. He has the shooting ability from outside to stretch the floor and the length to be a factor in the interior, but he needs to add a lot of muscle to his body and work on his isolation game and defense. I think the right thing for the Rockets to do would would be to let these young players develop one more offseason and then evaluate who they can go after. Even with a trade this year I'm not convinced they would be championship contenders just yet.
Looking at this season, I think the Rockets have a tough road in holding onto the number eight seed. In looking at their next 7 opponents: Miami, Portland, Sacramento, Golden State, LAC, OKC, and Brooklyn, they will have their hands full. The tilt against Portland on Friday will be enormous as Portland is the team one game behind the Rockets. Also looking up at the Rockets in the Division is the ever dangerous Lakers. So what you want, but that team could click at any time and become a real contender. They are only 3.5 games back of the Rockets. The Rockets have equal amount of home and away games remaining.
The real difference maker for the Rockets will be whether or not Jeremy Lin can play at a high level going forward. They need someone else who can excel in the isolation game handling the rock and creating shots not just for themselves but for their teammates too. This team has one of the brightest futures of any in the League, but just be patient fans in Clutch City, it won't happen this year. The could be real contenders as early as next year though as they are just one piece away.
While the Division looks to be back to just a one team race for the top spot (was it ever in question the Spurs would win this division?), it doesn't mean there aren't story lines galore in the Southwest. Where will Rudy Gay land? Will the Rockets use their young assets to bring another star around Harden before the deadline? Can the Mavericks continue to recover from a poor start? And the "Pelicans" hang tough with just about every team...Greivis Vasquez for Most Improved anyone? Let's tackle these questions in the our most recent roundup.
We don't need to say much about San Antonio this week as they have continued their dominance winning 8 straight games to stretch their lead to 5.5 games. They also have dominated divisional opponents winning 11 of 13 contests so far. The scariest news for other teams in the division? The Spurs are likely to win their next 4 games, against NBA bottom feeders Charlotte, Washington, Minnesota, and Detroit. The only possible tests I see in there is Detroit potentially or Washington if Martel Webster or Bradley Beal catches fire from downtown. So it looks like they will be winners of 12 straight soon...time for Pop to start coming up with a rest schedule for his stars. This team does everything well except maybe rebound, but they aren't too shabby at that either (-.7 differential is minimal). I honestly think this is the best team in the NBA and I can't wait for the Feb 21st game against the Clippers of Lob City and the March 11th game against OKC. Those will be the real measuring sticks we need to evaluate the championships hopes of each team I believe (sure it's just one game, but those are the BIGGEST regular season games left in the Western Conference). Well, just to understand the Spurs magic, here is Tim Duncan doing the un-amazing amazingly:
Okay so now onto the real gritty stuff in this division. First off, I believe Rudy Gay is all but gone from the Grizz. His contract is such a huge cap hit next year, that a small market team like Memphis just can't take on the risk of having to pay out the final 37 million on his contract. While reports from reliable sources like WoJo say that the Raptors and Grizz have all but completed a trade, needing only a third team to take on Jose Calderon's $10.5 million contract, I think that is just one instance where Gay could land outside Memphis. The Celtics with Paul Pierce's contract that could be bought out (only 4 million guaranteed next season) are another option, although as a C's fan, I don't think the blowup strategy would really work with our roster (a topic for another post). Anyway, the biggest hurdle is finding that third team. Could the aforementioned Celtics, a team in need of PG help following the season ending ACL injury to star Rajon Rondo, be a taker? The Mavericks who have a lot of veterans on short contracts including Chris Kaman's expiring 8 million could be a landing spot for Calderon to help facilitate this deal. All in all, where there is smoke, there is likely fire, so Rudy Gay you better get a travel bag ready. While often a poor shooter, his talents/potential are in line with stardom:
Oh yeah, so the Grizzlies are pretty good right now too, winning 3 of 4. Marc Gasol is a monster and they have the best defensive backcourt (Tony Allen & Mike Conley) in basketball. Too bad they just can't generate the revenue to support the team they could have.
The Rockets are yet another interesting team in this Southwest. The team is not poised to truly compete this season, although they are extremely fun to watch and can actually be good on both ends of the floor. What this team really needs is another star to compliment James "the beard" Harden. Could they make a run at Kevin Garnett or Pau Gasol, even Zach Randolph? They certainly have the young talent to entice a team in transition mode in need of youth, but are those the players they want to add. With Harden and Asik as really the only untouchables, (Parsons, Morris, Paterson are all valuable pieces, but not untouchable) putting a star with them makes this team one of the most dangerous in the league. I want to know what Rocket fans think...Do you try and improve now for a two year window and then find another player to team with Harden, or do you steadily wait and hope you have a long window that starts as early as next year, but most likely 2014? I'm thinking championships here, not just a playoff team. The Rockets have won 4 of 5, so maybe they just stay the course this season and reevaluate where they are after. It'll be tough to compete with Spurs, Clippers and Thunder over the next couple years anyways. Just keep in mind that if they want to be aggressive, they have the young talent to go get someone.
The Mavs are a team that I think will be Buyers, but really should be sellers come the deadline in two weeks. They have almost no shot at competing for a title this season, and unless they can bring in some more talent to surround Dirk, Mayo, and Collison with for next season they will find themselves in the NBA hell-fire of a late lottery team. They suffered a heartbreaking, soul crushing loss last night to Portland, who stormed back after being down 21 points. Portland was down 3 with about 5 second left and managed 5 points in that time frame, thanks to a 50/50 charging foul called on Mayo and a heroic effort by LeMarcus Aldridge (game tying 3 with 5 second left, buzzer beater after the charge to win). I just don't think this team has what it takes and should sell off Kaman, Brand, and Carter. The one big question in Big D is whether or not the team has a chance at Dwight in the offseason? If they do, they only want back expiring contracts or inexpensive talent, but if they feel he is out of their reach they need to acquire some long term talent to pair with Dirk in his twilight.
And finally, the NO Pelicans..err Hornets always seem to have a sting in them, but just not enough to get over the hump. Greivis Vasquez and Omer Asik are my two picks for a toss up in the Most Improved Player award, While Vasquez is still less than stellar at shooting, his determination and grit is admirable. He gets into the lane nicely and he continues to find his teammates at a staggering pace. Vasquez went from 5.4 assists per game last season to 9.3 so far this season in 9 more minutes That's incredible improvement. I'm just waiting for Anthony Davis to figure the NBA game out. He doesn't always get rebounds and he sits on the baseline offensively way too often. Once his activity level boosts, he will be a star. I look for a monster second half from the big fella.
That all for today's roundup folks. Remember to follow me on twitter https://twitter.com/theNBAninja and stay tuned as the PickandPopDiaries enters 21 days of trade rumors heading up to the deadline.
While San Antonio has clearly separated themselves from the field in this division, the Grizzlies and Rockets continue to make noise of their own. Houston is creating buzz for all the right reasons, as they have won 10 of 12 including 5 straight. Memphis, one of the elite defense teams in the league (more to come on this later), has been in the middle of the NBA rumor central for the past 48 hours (Rudy Gay and now rumblings about Zach Randolph being moved). In this roundup we will look at each team's recent performance as well as explore some of the trade rumors in Memphis.
San Antonio:
The Spurs lost 2 of 3 this week dropping games to both the Knicks and Hornets while they defeated the 76ers. The weakness of this roster right now is that is has a difficult time matching up with elite athletes, especially at the front court position which leads to struggles rebounding the basketball. But honestly, that may be this teams' only short coming. They are 4th in the NBA in offensive efficiency scoring 107.8 points per 100 possessions, while they are 5th in defensive efficiency giving up only 98.6 points per those same 100 possessions. Only the LA Clippers have the same claim to being in the top 5 in both those categories. That's elite company. Further more for the Spurs, the rank fist overall in the NBA in assist rate (rate of assists per possession) and 3rd overall in true shooting percentage (weighted efficiency adjusting for three pointers and free throws). What this all tells me is that this is the epitome of a team. They work together offensively making the extra pass, space the floor well using the strengths of each player to their advantage, and have crisp defensive rotations resulting in superb help defense. Clearly the best in this division, they are in the thick of it in the loaded western conference with arguably only the Clippers and Thunder looking like fellow contenders to get to the finals.
Memphis:
Memphis continues to play good ball, shutting opponents down defensively while grinding out offensive possessions. Now second in the league in defensive efficiency allowing a paltry 96.5 points per 100 possessions, this team's identity starts and ends on the defensive end. Anchored by Tony Allen on the wing and Marc Gasol in the interior this team swarms the ball forcing opponents to shoot over the top of the their defenders. They rarely allow layups and they allow Mike Conley, who has some of the quickest hands in basketball, to go after anyone dribbling the ball in the lane. Conley is another defensive stalwart who averages 2.4 steals a game and has been one of the best theifs in the NBA over the past few seasons. This week we also saw one of the streakiest shooters in the NBA catch fire as Wayne Ellington absolute made it rain for the Grizz, torching the Kings to the tune of 26 points on an unreal 10-11 from the field including 6 of 7 from downtown. Watching an elite athlete get into a zone is both terrifying (knowing you could never do that) and electrifying (also knowing this is something you can't do), but either way it was fun to see for a brief stretch of time. Now for Memphis fans, if only Rudy Gay could get into a zone like that.....Which bring me to the next discussion point, the trade winds in Memphis.
As my colleague Evan pointed out yesterday, the need to move Rudy Gay is based on the fact that he earns too much money for what he is giving this team as his salary forces the team over the cap. See Evan's article for an in depth look: http://pickandpopdiaries.blogspot.com/2013/01/rudy-gay-trade-derby.html
Basically this season a team will pay one dollar of tax for every dollar they are over the cap, but in future seasons this changes. h/t to Larry Coon and CBA FAQ as he has this chart listed for what tax paying teams will pay in the future.
Team salary above tax level
Non-repeater
Repeater
Lower
Upper
Tax rate
Incremental maximum
Tax rate
Incremental maximum
$0
$4,999,999
$1.50
$7.5 million
$2.50
$12.5 million
$5,000,000
$9,999,999
$1.75
$8.75 million
$2.75
$13.75 million
$10,000,000
$14,999,999
$2.50
$12.5 million
$3.50
$17.5 million
$15,000,000
$19,999,999
$3.25
$16.25 million
$4.25
$21.25 million
$20,000,000
N/A
$3.75, and increasing $.50 for each additional $5 million.
N/A
$4.75, and increasing $.50 for each additional $5 million.
N/A
While this is a bit confusing no doubt, it means that it will become more and more expensive to be over the cap, forcing teams like the Grizz to dump salary before the tax is levied on them. Rudy Gay is an exceptional talent. He has the length, athleticism speed, and versatility to be an elite player on both ends of the floor, but so far in his career he has not been able to find the consistency that validates him being a max contract player. In fact this year he has regressed offensively to the point where he is shooting a career low field goal percentage of 40.8% which includes shooting just 34.8% in his last 5 ball games. What could the Grizz expect back in return for Gay? Well since they are trying to dump salary for an overpriced player, certainly not equal value and probably a poor contract in return. I won't repeat the work that Evan did yesterday as he threw out some trade ideas, but it would make a lot of sense for Phoenix to get involved as well as Boston in a three team trade if it means it can acquire a legitimate center. Also the Kings and the Bucks could become interested if the price is right.
Rudy Gay isn't the only Grizzly getting talked about in trade rumors. The Memphis Commercial-Appeal also said that the team has had primarily discussions about moving Zach Randolph. While like Gay, Randolph makes upwards of 17 million dollars, he, unlike Rudy Gay has been playing good basketball. There is also the difficulty in moving him as he has had two major knee injuries and is no longer a young player (he is 31). Anyway let's explore a trade possibility for Randolph to Sacramento which is the team mentioned in the preliminary discussion for a trade for a ZBO:
The Grizz Get: Thomas Robinson, Marcus Thornton, and Tyreke Evans The Kings get: Zach Randolph and Tony Wrotten
The Grizzlies would certainly not be as good as a team without the interior presence of Randolph this year, but this is a solid haul for a team looking to dump salary. They would get a solid PF option in Robinson, as well as a high level combo guard in Evans. They would also get the unconscious scorer off the bench, the OJ Mayo type player they miss, in Marcus Thornton who can just light it up from downtown. This would also open up extended playing time for Darrell Arthur. Most importantly from the Grizz prospective, this would save the team $1.5 MM in player salaries as well as taxable dollars over the salary cap.
The Kings get the best player in this deal and someone they can use to sell tickets. If they can keep DeMarcus Cousins then they will have one of, if not the best, rebounding front lines in the NBA. They also get a project PG who has the size and athleticism to be a good player at the NBA level.
Houston Rockets: Houston continues to play great basketball, winning 5 in a row and 10 of 12. In fact they have mixed two 5 game winning streaks sandwiched around a two game losing streak. The only concerning point for the Rockets is that they are 1-9 against western conference playoff teams (if the playoff started right now). I think this is more attributed to lack of experience together rather than skill as this young team should be able to compete with better clubs once all of the new faces have meshed together over a longer period of time. James Harden looks to have reached super-star level officially now, averaging 26.6 a game, 5.4 dimes, and 4.2 rebounds as well as 1.9 steals. Those gaudy numbers are of course only on a small sampling of not even half an NBA season, and doubters will say he needs to do this for multiple seasons before he is assigned a super-star status, but I believe he will. Also in his last 5 games he is averaging 29.6 points on nearly 50% shooting. He is elevating his play during a period in which he team is able to make a run. I love this kid, and quite frankly I really like this team. Omer Asik is a beast down low defensively and not enough can be said about his transformation on the offensive end making him a threat on both ends. Jeremy Lin has played well since facing the Knicks and getting the pressure of seeing his old team off his chest. Chandler Parsons, Marcus Morris, Tony Douglas and Carlos Delfino continue to play well too. They are first in the league in scoring at 106.8 a game as they get out on the fast break even on made baskets. This is one of the most fun teams in the league to watch on a daily basis and opponents better bring there track shoes or they will be run out of the gym. Dallas Mavericks: This team is going in the wrong direction and quickly. They have lost 9 of 10 while rumors of Dirk requesting a trade have surfaced on the internet. While Dirk has shut down these rumors, it would make sense for one of the all-time greats heading into the twilight of his career to want to be a part of a winner, which Dallas does not look to be. The problems in Big D are numerous. They are third to last in the league in allowing points, as opponents score over 103 a game on them and they turn the ball over at a rate near the bottom of the league as well. They have the worst rebounding differential of any team. Jesus Christ, I could go on forever about their shortcomings. This team is awful and needs to make a trade or two (or three or four...) to set itself up the future. They have no shot of being a contender this season. New Orleans: The Hornets had an impressive win over the Spurs Monday and rookie Anthony Davis finally looks to be coming out of his slump. After struggling the previous week, Davis scored 17, grabbed 9 boards and registered 3 steals showing an energy that had been missing his previous 4 games. Also showing signs of life was the finally healthy Eric Gordon who dropped 24 points in that game and despite shooting a woeful 35% so far in his 4 games back, looks to have his legs under him now. The Hornets are certainly not a playoff team, but I look for them to play good ball in the coming weeks now that they have their #1 scorer back as well as a more confident Anthony Davis.
The streaking Spurs look to have once again taken control of this division from the Grizzlies, but this isn't the only story-line here in the Southwest. Read after the jump for the division breakdown:
San Antonio Spurs: Last Weeks Games: 3-0 1. Win vs. Houston 122-116 2. Win @ Dallas 111-86 3. Win vs. Brooklyn 104-73
Upcoming Games: 1. Jan 2nd @ Milwaukee 8:00 2. Jan 3rd @ NYN 7L30 3. Jan 5th vs. Phili 8:30 4. Jan 7th @ New Orleans 8:00
Since Dropping 4 of 5 games in mid-December, the Spurs have now won 6 in a row including 4 divisional games all while reassuring Spurs fans that this team remains tops in the Southwest. The Spurs are both 3rd in points per game (105.5) and Point differential (9.0), but really across the board in all offensive categories this team ranks in the top 5. Despite having some excellent front court players in Duncan and Tiago Splitter, this team does struggle at rebounding due to its lack of athleticism. I'd say this is the teams' biggest obstacle at making a long playoff run, as it ranks 16th in rebound differential. As I mentioned last week and will again this week, the team has 7 players averaging above 9.5 points per game in what is an impressive display of depth most teams just can't match. On any given night, one of these 7 (or yet even another bench player like Steven Jackson) can lead this team in scoring. While they are flawed as pointed in out in their rebounding woes, the Spurs are the best in the division and one of the top in the NBA. As always, Coach Pop has this group playing at a high level with consistency.
Memphis Grizzlies: Last Weeks Games: 1-2 1. Loss vs. Phili 99-89 2. Win vs. Denver 81-72 3. Loss @ Indi 88-83
Upcoming Games: 1. Tonight @ Boston 7:00 2. Jan 4th vs. Portland 8:00 3. Jan 6th @ Phoenix 8:00 4. Jan 7th @ Sacramento 10:00
A rough week for Memphis could be turned around quickly as they face the fading Celtics as well as Western Conference Pushovers Phoenix and Sacramento in the coming week. What plagued the Grizz this past week was horrendous shooting. As a team they were not able to shoot over 40.5% during any of their three games, displaying both a lack of confidence as well as execution. Going into the 4th in Indianapolis this team was up 7, but was just unable to execute as the hounding Pacer defense proved too much for them to overcome. I really need to see this team work Marc Gasol in the post a little more, which would allow Rudy Gay to work off the ball, something he can excel at with his quickness. Being a halfcourt team, they need to run crisper plays and get there scorers into better positions. While the team plays great defense itself, it won't win big games without the ability to have a go-to play or player. This team will no doubt turn it around and get back to winning ways after last week, but i can't say they have my confidence as a dangerous team if there offense doesn't make significant progress. They are 1st in points allowed per game at 90 but are in the bottom half in both points scored and shooting percentage. One aspect I do love about this team is that they are 3rd in the NBA in free throw percentage as a team, shooting nearly 80%. If they only had a go to scorer....
Houston Rockets: Last Weeks Games: 1-2 1. Loss @ San Antonio 122-116 2. Loss vs. OKC 124-94 3. Win vs Atlanta 123-104
Upcoming Games: 1. Tonight vs. NO 8:00 2. Jan 4th @ Milwaukee 8:30 3. Jan 5th @ Cleveland 7:30 4. Jan 8th vs. LA 8:00
The Rockets faced excellent competition this week, as they fell short to San Antonio in a shootout and got crushed by OKC before delivering the blowout to the Hawks. This up and down week for the team from ClutchCity was not unexpected nor was it discouraging. After winning 7 of 8 heading into this week, the team faced one of the most difficult 2 game stretches any team can face as it lost to both the Spurs and Thunder. The response against a good Atlanta team was exactly what Rockets fans wanted to see as they played the uptempo style to perfection. They scored 26 fast break points, but even pushing the pace on made baskets and getting shots up before the defense was settled allowed a bevy of open three point shots. The team shot 55% from downtown making 16 of 29. Houston continues to be near the top of the league in scoring sitting just a tenth of a point outside of the Thunder who average 105.9 points per game. The backcourt acquired in the offseason, James Harden and Jeremy Lin, look to be getting in rhythm with each other, and as a fan it's a really fun sight to behold. As both are excellent ball handlers, it allows the Rockets to outlet the ball to either player getting the ball up into the offensive end nearly immediately upon having possession. We all know Harden, Lin, Omer Asik, and more recently Chandler Parsons have been getting huge props around the NBA, but I want to zero in on another young stud for this team, second year player Marcus Morris. Morris is a X-factor for this team as his athleticism around the hoop as well as his ability to knock down the three ball have been a big part of the turnaround for Houston. He is averaging 9.5 points to go along with 4 boards, but he is shooting nearly 40% from downtown, a terrific number. Houston has scorers at every position and Morris is just one of many contributors, but his game looks to be one that will play in the league for many years to come.
Dallas Mavericks: Last Weeks Games: 1-3 1. Loss @ OKC 111-105 OT 2. Loss vs. Denver 106-85 3. Loss vs. San Antonio 111-86 4. Win @ Washington 103-94
Upcoming Games: 1. Tonight @ Miami 7:30 2. Jan 5th vs. NO 8:30 3. Jan 7th @ Utah 9:00
The Mavs ended their six game slide with a win against the lowly Wizards last night, a game in which Dirk played his best ball since returning. I'm still skeptical whether this team has the ability to make waves in the playoffs, but I do enjoy it's veteran core, especially the inspired play of Vince Carter and Chris Kaman of late. It's still difficult to evaluate this team without Dirk being fully healthy, but last night making 5 of 7 shots for 11 points in 17 minutes was a step in the right direction. If Dirk can get healthy, and we will know this if he is getting to the free throw line or not, then I still think this team can be dangerous come playoff time, but for now I see them as a team just missing the postseason. I hope I'm wrong though, cause it'd be fun to see Vincesanity do things like this on a bigger stage (The reaction of the fans sitting courtside was exactly my reaction from my couch):
New Orleans Hornets: Last Weeks Games: 2-2 1. WIn @ Orlando 97-94 2. Loss vs. Toronto 104-97 OT 3. Win @ Charlotte 98-95 4. Loss vs. Atlanta 95-86
Upcoming Games: 1. Tonight @ Houston 8:00 2. Jan 5th @ Dallas 8:30 3. Jan 7th vs. San Antonio 8:00
Eric Gordon made a loud return to action scoring 24 points in 24 minutes while dishing out 7 dimes in the teams win against the Bobcats. He struggled in the loss to Atlanta, but I can only assume that as he gets in game shape, he will be better at playing in multiple games in a week. His introduction into this lineup does amazing things for this team as it gives them not only a true play-maker but another ball handler on the floor. All I want from the Hornets is for them to work on the pick and roll/pop with Gordon and Davis. This team could be solid if they are able to play those two in a two-man-game at the top of the key successfully. Okay, I can only stomach enough Hornets talk right now. Can Will Ferrell announce another lineup for the Hornets already? I could talk about that all day...
