Well, I wrote about this earlier as being set in stone, and in fact Rudy Gay has been moved this evening. The Grizzlies will receive promising 23 year old PF Ed Davis from the Raptors as well Tayshaun Prince and Austin Daye from Detroit. Detroit will receive PG Jose Calderon. Toronto Receives Rudy Gay of course along with reserve center Hamed Haddadi.
The Memphis starting lineup Projects as: Pg: Mike Conley Sg: Tony Allen Sf: Tayshaun Prince Pf: Zach Randolph C: Marc Gasol
Key reserves: Ed Davis, Darrell Arthur, Jared Bayless
Look for Memphis to try and find a way to trade Zach Randolph in the next two weeks as they redo the roster. All in all, not a terrible haul for Memphis, I think Davis is really good young player and they get two key players in Prince and Daye. Toronto gets its target...now they need a trade partner for Andrea Bargnani. Detroit gets the veteran PG it needed. I think this is an all-around win for each team.
Toronto now boats three of the best in-game dunkers in the league now in Gay, Terrence Ross, and DeMar Derozan.
Senior Editor Brian Ford will have more on this later!
While the Division looks to be back to just a one team race for the top spot (was it ever in question the Spurs would win this division?), it doesn't mean there aren't story lines galore in the Southwest. Where will Rudy Gay land? Will the Rockets use their young assets to bring another star around Harden before the deadline? Can the Mavericks continue to recover from a poor start? And the "Pelicans" hang tough with just about every team...Greivis Vasquez for Most Improved anyone? Let's tackle these questions in the our most recent roundup.
We don't need to say much about San Antonio this week as they have continued their dominance winning 8 straight games to stretch their lead to 5.5 games. They also have dominated divisional opponents winning 11 of 13 contests so far. The scariest news for other teams in the division? The Spurs are likely to win their next 4 games, against NBA bottom feeders Charlotte, Washington, Minnesota, and Detroit. The only possible tests I see in there is Detroit potentially or Washington if Martel Webster or Bradley Beal catches fire from downtown. So it looks like they will be winners of 12 straight soon...time for Pop to start coming up with a rest schedule for his stars. This team does everything well except maybe rebound, but they aren't too shabby at that either (-.7 differential is minimal). I honestly think this is the best team in the NBA and I can't wait for the Feb 21st game against the Clippers of Lob City and the March 11th game against OKC. Those will be the real measuring sticks we need to evaluate the championships hopes of each team I believe (sure it's just one game, but those are the BIGGEST regular season games left in the Western Conference). Well, just to understand the Spurs magic, here is Tim Duncan doing the un-amazing amazingly:
Okay so now onto the real gritty stuff in this division. First off, I believe Rudy Gay is all but gone from the Grizz. His contract is such a huge cap hit next year, that a small market team like Memphis just can't take on the risk of having to pay out the final 37 million on his contract. While reports from reliable sources like WoJo say that the Raptors and Grizz have all but completed a trade, needing only a third team to take on Jose Calderon's $10.5 million contract, I think that is just one instance where Gay could land outside Memphis. The Celtics with Paul Pierce's contract that could be bought out (only 4 million guaranteed next season) are another option, although as a C's fan, I don't think the blowup strategy would really work with our roster (a topic for another post). Anyway, the biggest hurdle is finding that third team. Could the aforementioned Celtics, a team in need of PG help following the season ending ACL injury to star Rajon Rondo, be a taker? The Mavericks who have a lot of veterans on short contracts including Chris Kaman's expiring 8 million could be a landing spot for Calderon to help facilitate this deal. All in all, where there is smoke, there is likely fire, so Rudy Gay you better get a travel bag ready. While often a poor shooter, his talents/potential are in line with stardom:
Oh yeah, so the Grizzlies are pretty good right now too, winning 3 of 4. Marc Gasol is a monster and they have the best defensive backcourt (Tony Allen & Mike Conley) in basketball. Too bad they just can't generate the revenue to support the team they could have.
The Rockets are yet another interesting team in this Southwest. The team is not poised to truly compete this season, although they are extremely fun to watch and can actually be good on both ends of the floor. What this team really needs is another star to compliment James "the beard" Harden. Could they make a run at Kevin Garnett or Pau Gasol, even Zach Randolph? They certainly have the young talent to entice a team in transition mode in need of youth, but are those the players they want to add. With Harden and Asik as really the only untouchables, (Parsons, Morris, Paterson are all valuable pieces, but not untouchable) putting a star with them makes this team one of the most dangerous in the league. I want to know what Rocket fans think...Do you try and improve now for a two year window and then find another player to team with Harden, or do you steadily wait and hope you have a long window that starts as early as next year, but most likely 2014? I'm thinking championships here, not just a playoff team. The Rockets have won 4 of 5, so maybe they just stay the course this season and reevaluate where they are after. It'll be tough to compete with Spurs, Clippers and Thunder over the next couple years anyways. Just keep in mind that if they want to be aggressive, they have the young talent to go get someone.
The Mavs are a team that I think will be Buyers, but really should be sellers come the deadline in two weeks. They have almost no shot at competing for a title this season, and unless they can bring in some more talent to surround Dirk, Mayo, and Collison with for next season they will find themselves in the NBA hell-fire of a late lottery team. They suffered a heartbreaking, soul crushing loss last night to Portland, who stormed back after being down 21 points. Portland was down 3 with about 5 second left and managed 5 points in that time frame, thanks to a 50/50 charging foul called on Mayo and a heroic effort by LeMarcus Aldridge (game tying 3 with 5 second left, buzzer beater after the charge to win). I just don't think this team has what it takes and should sell off Kaman, Brand, and Carter. The one big question in Big D is whether or not the team has a chance at Dwight in the offseason? If they do, they only want back expiring contracts or inexpensive talent, but if they feel he is out of their reach they need to acquire some long term talent to pair with Dirk in his twilight.
And finally, the NO Pelicans..err Hornets always seem to have a sting in them, but just not enough to get over the hump. Greivis Vasquez and Omer Asik are my two picks for a toss up in the Most Improved Player award, While Vasquez is still less than stellar at shooting, his determination and grit is admirable. He gets into the lane nicely and he continues to find his teammates at a staggering pace. Vasquez went from 5.4 assists per game last season to 9.3 so far this season in 9 more minutes That's incredible improvement. I'm just waiting for Anthony Davis to figure the NBA game out. He doesn't always get rebounds and he sits on the baseline offensively way too often. Once his activity level boosts, he will be a star. I look for a monster second half from the big fella.
That all for today's roundup folks. Remember to follow me on twitter https://twitter.com/theNBAninja and stay tuned as the PickandPopDiaries enters 21 days of trade rumors heading up to the deadline.
Rudy Gay is an extremely talented player with, elite upside that garnered a max contract of $80 Million over five years. Despite his athleticism being a sight to behold, he has yet to live up to his top earner billing. The Grizzlies have decided it is time to take offers on his huge contract. Memphis shopping Gay, however, is not indicative of his talent. This move would be financially motivated
(Skip this paragraph if you don't care why the Grizzlies are trying to shed payroll)
NBA teams are petrified of the luxury tax from the new Collective Bargaining Agreement. The two important features of the new CBA are a punitive tax and repeat offender tax. Below is a table showing the rates of tax for the new CBA. Essentially it means that for every dollar the team goes over the tax they have to pay 1.50 in taxes or 2.50 if they are a repeat offender, that is $5 or less over the tax. So if a team was $5 MM over the tax they would pay $7.5 MM in additional tax or $12.5 MM for a repeat offender.
Amount over tax threshold
Standard tax
Repeat offender tax
$5 million or less
$1.50
$2.50
$5 million to $10 million
$1.75
$2.75
$10 million to $15 million
$2.50
$3.50
$15 million to $25 million
$3.25
$4.25
Simply put, this tax makes it significantly more expensive for teams to go over the threshold . This tax has made it so that only the teams with legitimate chances at the title are willing to pay the tax (that Dolan, Cuban and Buss). Although the Grizzlies are probably contenders, their recent swoon has caused ownership to question whether they want to pay the tax. In any deal Memphis is looking to shed at least $4.6 million in salary to get under the tax level.
After Memphis beat the Spurs in the first round two years ago it was widely believed that they were ready to make the leap. The standard school of thought was that with Gay returning from injury the year after. the Grizz would be an elite team. Gay did come back, and they lost in the first round last year. This year with Gay, Memphis got off to their best start in franchise history. Since their 12-2 start Memphis has been just 10-8. Does this mean they are no longer an elite team? Probably not but that seems to be what ownership is thinking.
That is not to say Memphis isn't trying to get equal value in return for Rudy. The problem is that forcing the other team to take on $4.6 million in any deal is going to diminish Gay's value markedly. The Grizzlies are reported to be looking for three point shooting (to space the floor giving Randolph and Gasol more room to operate) and a first round pick in addition to $4.6 MM in savings.
Earlier this week Zach Lowe began the Gay rumor, while today Adrian Wojnarowski and Alex Kennedy produced articles mentioning the teams interested in. I will be going over each team rumored to inquire about Gay's availability and make up a fake trade that will use the guidelines mentioned in the previous paragraph.
The Boston Celtics
At first glace the Celtics make no sense. Boston is over the cap so they can not give Memphis the $4.6 million in savings they desire. That seems like a non-starter to any deal. However, when you look at the other teams rumored to be in on Gay they all have pieces that the Celtics could use. When taking this into consideration it becomes clear that Boston probably called Memphis, not for Gay but to be a part of a larger deal.
The Deal:
The Celtics need a center and Marcin Gortat is one of the best on the market. Memphis would get two very good three point shooting bench players to aid in their playoff run as well as a protected first from Phoenix and save $5.9 million. Phoenix would get what it wants in Rudy Gay and a project big to eventually replace Gortat. Would the Suns move Gortat or would losing Gortat negate trading for Gay? Is Phoenix willing to move Dudley, who is currently the heart and soul of their team? Does Boston have enough bench firepower to survive losing Terry? Does Memphis get cold feet when it finally comes time to pull the trigger?
The Sacramento Kings:
All reports out of Sacramento are that they are not moving DeMarcus Cousins. Along with that hurdle, the Kings have an ownership group that has money problems, which would make it seem unlikely that a deal is consummated. Most of the packages Sacramento would prefer sending would not be enough for Memphis. Even if the Kings were to move Cousins they would want to send back contracts that would negate the savings.
Sacramento showed that they were taking offers on former rookie of the year Tyreke Evans when they decided not to offer him an extension. His value is at a career low but could end up reaching his full potential on a different team. Thornton would provide the bench shooting that the Grizz need. Sacramento would be ecstatic to get Rudy Gay without giving up Cousins, but even I still question whether ownership would foot the bill.
The Golden State Warriors
The Golden State Warriors are one of the best teams in the west. Let that sink in. For the first time in a while GSW will be buyers at the trade deadline. Rudy Gay would be a huge upgrade at small forward for a team that could use one. Gay would put them over the top and allow them to compete for home court advantage in the playoffs. Is the price of an upgrade at the three too high for Golden State?
This trade doesn't give Memphis the entire savings they would like causing them to make another move after. Despite the lack of salary relief this deal would bring two good prospects to Memphis. In the end this probably is not enough for Memphis. In order to sweeten the pot Memphis could switch Harrison Barnes for Klay Thompson and then add Festus Ezeli. Four for one trades in the NBA are unlikely at best because the players cut to pair the roster down to 15 would still have fully guaranteed deals that would need to be paid (which could negate some of the salary savings).
Let me know what you think of these trades in the comments.
