NBA Northwest Division Round Up: Denver and Utah Find an Identity

Before the season started OKC distinguished itself as the division's elite. After making it to the finals as the Western Conference representative with a young team everyone knew they would win the division. Denver and Utah are trending upwards due to the emphasis on pace. Portland has hit a rough stretch after surviving the early season without a bench. In the process, making those who use Pythagorean Win Projections happy by reverting to the mean in losing games. Minnesota's season went the way of Kevin Love's right hand, in that they are both broken.

NORTHWEST	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	DIV	CONF	PF	PA	DIFF	STRK	L10
Oklahoma City	32	8	.800	-	19-3	13-5	5-1	20-3	105.7	96.4	+9.3	Won 6	8-2
Denver	24	18	.571	9	15-3	9-15	4-5	17-11	102.7	100.4	+2.3	Lost 2	7-3
Utah	21	19	.525	11	12-4	9-15	2-3	12-14	98.4	98.6	-0.2	Won 2	6-4
Portland	20	19	.513	11 ½	13-6	7-13	3-3	12-11	96.9	99.0	-2.1	Lost 4	5-5
Minnesota	16	20	.444	14	10-6	6-14	3-5	9-13	94.8	96.7	-1.9	Lost 5	3-7

The Oklahoma City Thunder
http://www.nba.com/thunder/
This Week's Games: 9-2:
1. Win vs. Phoenix 114-96
2. Loss vs. Brooklyn 110-93
3. Win vs. Philadelphia 109-85
4. Win @ Toronto 104-92
5. Loss @ Washington 101-99
6. Win vs. Minnesota 106-84
7. Win @ LA Lakers 116-101
8. Win @ Portland 87-83
9. Win @ Phoenix 102-90
10. Win vs Denver 117-97
11. Win @ Dallas 117-114 OT

Next Week's Games: Projected Outcome 3-1
1. @ Denver Sunday at 8:00
2. @ LA Clippers Tuesday at 10:30
3. @ Golden State Wednesday at 10:30
4. @ Sacramento Friday at 10:00

The Thunder can win in many ways. Last night they won behind a career high 52 by Kevin Durant, two games earlier they won with the defense of Kendrick Perkins. On other occasions Ibaka has used his rim protection and athleticism to turn the tide, much the same as Westbrook can catch fire and single handedly carry his team.  The Thunder are the most well rounded team in the league.

Currently OKC's biggest problem is a lack of depth, as of now they have seven trustworthy rotation players. I say currently because this will cease to be a problem in the playoffs when the rotations shorten. In the meantime the Thunder would benefit greatly if Jackson, Liggins, Maynor, and/or Jones could step up and give them reliable bench play. In their shocking loss to the Wizards their lack of a bench hurt them. On the second night of back to backs they were not able to keep their legs fresh without a deep bench.

Even without a bounty of depth, the Thunder are the best team in the league. With Miami still dealing with their championship hangover OKC is my odds on favorite to win the title.

The Denver Nuggets

http://www.nba.com/nuggets/

This Week's Games: 7-3

1. Win vs. LA Clippers 92-78

2. Loss vs. Minnesota Timberwolves 101-97

3. Win vs. Utah 110-91

4. Win @ LA Lakers 112-105

5. Win vs. Orlando 108-105

6. Win vs. Cleveland 98-91

7. Win vs. Golden State 116-105

8. Win vs. Portland 115-110 OT

9. Loss @ OKC 117-97

10. Loss vs. Washington 112-108

Next Week's Games: Projected Outcome 1-1

1. vs. OKC Sunday at 8:00

2. @ Houston Wednesday at 8:00

Since my last Northwest round up Denver has cemented itself in the second spot in the Northwest. All season, their players have been playing under their capabilities and now they are finally getting their footing. Along with their improved play Denver is benefiting from a home heavy schedule. To begin the season no team played more away games than Denver, now those numbers are evening out. While going 7-3 in their last ten games they are 6-1 at home and 1-1 on the road.

During the month of January, the Nuggets have made a concerted effort to push the pace, taking more shots and getting to the line more than in any other full month. Their increased output has not been solely at the offensive end. The Nuggets are finally playing with defensive discipline to back up their unrivaled athleticism. Their steal numbers are at a season low but on this team that is actually a good thing. Defensively the Nuggs are staying true to their rotations, trusting their teammates to be in the correct spot instead of gambling on steals. This has lead to their best defensive field goal percentage of any month.

This week Denver has two tough opponents in OKC and Houston. Both the games should be fast paced affairs that whose speed favors the Nuggets. The Thunder are simply a better team and will outdo the Nuggets at their preferred pace giving them the victory. The Rockets will push the tempo at their own peril and end up paying for it with a loss.

The Utah Jazz

http://www.nba.com/jazz/

This Week's Games: 6-3

1. Loss @ LA Clippers 107-96

2. Win vs. Minnesota 106-84

3. Win @ Phoenix 87-80

4. Loss @ Denver 110-91

5. Win vs. Dallas 100-94

6. Win @ Charlotte 112-102

7. Loss @ Atlanta 103-95

8. Win @ Detroit 90-87

9. Win vs. Miami 104-97

Next Week's Games: Projected Outcome 3-0

1. vs. Cleveland Saturday at 9:00

2. vs. Washington Wednesday at 9:00

3. @ LA Lakers Friday at 10:30

The Utah Jazz are glad to put a 6-9 December behind them. Since the start of January they have compiled a 6-2 record, including and impressive win in their last game against Miami. Utah is home to one of the most feared arenas in the league. That Utah was able to compile a 6-3 record, while having to play six of those games on the road is truly astounding and  indicative of their improved play.

While Denver used an increase pace to fuel their resurgence, Utah has been successful doing the opposite. During January the Jazz have taken less shots and scored less points than any other month. Normally this would be a huge red flag, but for the Jazz it is a positive.

Utah is a team built upon its impressive front court with two boarder line all stars starting at power forward and center. Their size extends past their starters for they have two future stars in Enes Kanter and Derrick Favors. With their elite size the Jazz are a team best suited for physical half court game, that they have turned to this method is the driving factor behind their success.

This week Utah will use their half court oriented attack against Cleveland Washington and the Lakers. Cleveland does not have the size to match up with Utah and should fall to them. Washington is currently red hot with the return of John Wall, this should extend to their game against Utah. The Lakers are playing better but not to the same level the Jazz are, expect the Jazz to obtain a signture win against a streaking Los Angeles.

The Portland Trailblazers

http://www.nba.com/blazers/

This Week's Games: 5-5

1. Win @ New York 105-100

2. Loss @ Tornoto 102-79

3. Win @ Memphis 86-84

4. Win @ Minnesota 102-97

5. Win vs. Orlando 125-119 OT

6. Win vs. Miami 92-90

7. Loss @ Golden State 103-97

8. Loss vs. OKC 87-83

9. Loss @ Denver 115-111 OT

10. Loss vs. Cleveland 93-88

Next Week's Games: Projected Outcome 1-2

1. vs Milwaukee Saturday at 10:00

2. vs Washington Monday at 10:00

3. vs Indiana Wednesday at 10:00

All year Portland has been overachieving. Statistical experts often use point differential as a measure of how good a team really is. If a team has a winning record but a negative point differential this statistic would indicate that this team is due for a losing streak. Portland has the worst differential in the division despite having five more wins than Minnesota and this is after the recent four game (mean reverting) losing streak. Luck is a difficult thing to measure in sports but if you believe in luck you could make an argument that Portland's luck is evening out.

If, you don't believe in luck in sports you probably want me to explain the deficiency that has caused the Blazers recent losing streak. The Blazers are a top heavy roster, meaning that their starters are very good but their bench leave a lot to be desired. This imbalance has lead to the Blazers starters logging more minutes than any other such group in the NBA. Meaning that not only are the Blazers negatively effected when their bench is in the game but their lack of a bench is wearing on their starters.

The Blazers must quickly decide whether to add pieces to their bench in order to make a playoff run (sacrificing draft picks and young players to do so) or if they are to hope their young players develop. This week the Blazers should continue their losing ways against Washington and Indiana but should have enough to defeat a reeling Bucks team.

The Minnesota Timberwolves

http://www.nba.com/timberwolves/

This Week's Games: 2-7

1. Loss @ Utah 106-84

2. Win @ Denver 101-97

3. Loss vs. Portland 102-97

4. Win vs. Atlanta 108-103

5. Loss @ OKC 106-84

6. Loss @ New Orleans 104-92

7. Loss @ San Antonio 106-88

8. Loss @ Dallas 113-98

9. Loss vs LA Clippers 90-77

Next Week's Games: Projected Outcome 1-3

1. vs. Houston Saturday at 8:00

2. @ Atlanta Monday at 2:00

3. vs. Brooklyn Wednesday at  8:00

4. @ Washington Friday at 7:00

The Timberwolves, have been dealing with injuries all season. Recently, however, the injuries have become too much to bare. The injuries have reached a tipping point, finally preventing the Wolves from competing. With Kevin Love, Nikola Pekovic, and Chase Buddinger all out the Wolves are missing three players projected to start at the beginning of the year. That along with Ricky Rubio yet to play a game at 100 percent has precluded Minnesota from winning. Analyzing their style of play would be useless at this point considering they currently have a team comprised of spare parts.

The Wolves are currently mired in a five game losing streak. Things do not get any easier for the wounded ballers from Minnesota this week. Three of their games this week are against contending teams and the fourth is against a red hot Washington team with John Wall back. I expect the T-Wolves to win one of these games in what would now be deemed an upset.

Northwest Division Round Up: Overachievers and Underachievers

The Northwest division has a clear leader in Oklahoma City, after that the second place team is separated by the last place team by only two games. Every team in this division has a reasonable shot at the playoffs, making this by far the most competitive division in the league. As a writer, this makes the division interesting, but at the same time maddening. It's very easy to look foolish discussing the weakness of a last place team only to have them catch fire and skyrocket up the standings. In this week's round up I will break down an overachiever and an underachiever for each team.

NORTHWEST	W	L	PCT	GB	HOME	ROAD	DIV	CONF	PF	PA	DIFF	STRK	L10
Oklahoma City	23	6	.793	-	15-2	8-4	2-1	13-3	105.7	96.7	+9.0	Won 2	8-2
Denver	17	15	.531	7 ½	9-1	8-14	2-3	12-9	101.9	100.0	+1.8	Lost 1	6-4
Minnesota	14	13	.519	8	9-4	5-9	2-2	8-6	95.6	94.6	+1.1	Won 1	6-4
Portland	15	14	.517	8	11-4	4-10	2-1	10-8	96.9	99.0	-2.1	Won 1	7-3
Utah	15	16	.484	9	9-4	6-12	1-2	9-12	98.6	99.4	-0.8	Lost 2	4-6

The Oklahoma City Thunder
http://www.nba.com/thunder/
This Week's Games: 1-1:
1. Loss @ Miami 103-97
2. Win vs Dallas 111-105 (OT)
3. Win vs Houston 124-94

Next Week's Games: Projected Outcome 3-0
1. vs Phoenix on Monday at 8:00
2. vs Brooklyn on Wednesday at 8:00
3. vs Philadelphia on Friday at 8:00

The Thunder started off the week with a tough loss at Miami in a finals rematch. Miami came out on fire and OKC battled back like champions. The Thunder are good enough of a team that they are not out of any game, ever, regardless of opponent. OKC further showed their mettle by beating Dallas in OT. Dallas hit an immaculate reception style one footed three to tie the game, sending it to overtime. Most teams would have been deflated after giving up such a lucky shot, not the Thunder. The Thunder accepted this lucky shot, moved on and battled back to win the game. After that OKC blew the doors a formerly red hot Houston team.

This week I expect OKC to continue their strong play, winning all their games. Since, they are playing average level teams you would expect nothing more than three more wins from one of the best teams in the league.

Overachiever: Serge Ibaka
Key Statistics: 14.4 PPG, .610 true shooting %, 119 Points Per 100 possessions, 18.7 usage rate

Ok, I'll admit it, I chose Ibaka in part because his bevvy of awesome nicknames. From the Serge Protector , Air Congo, Iblocka to Dr. Nasty he probably has the best pseudonyms in the league. Most of his nicknames have to do with his superior athleticism and defensive ability. However, his name graces this list because of his improved offensive game. With the departure of James Harden, Ibaka has helped take over the offensive load. Ibaka has increased his shots but he has also increased his shooting percentage, meaning he isn't just scoring more, he's scoring more efficiently. His progression along with that of Durant and Westbrook has allowed OKC to not miss a beat despite Harden tearing up the league in a different uniform.


Underachiever: Eric Maynor
Key Statistics: 3.5 PPG, 110 defensive rating, 94 offensive rating, .380 eFG%, 8.2 PER

When Eric Maynor went down at the start of last year it really hurt the Thunder. With Reggie Jackson not able to step in and perform as a rookie the Thunder were forced to turn to the ancient Derek Fisher. The result was a second unit that lacked continuity and organization. This was masked by the fact that James Harden could score in any situation. This year Maynor was supposed to come back and give stability to a Hardenless bench. Maynor has not been back to his pre-injury self to this point in the year, posting his worst numbers career numbers across the board. He is having his worst year offensively, defensively, rebounding, shooting and pretty much any other facet of the game you can think of. The Thunder would be improved if Maynor could regain his form or if they got solid back up minutes out of Reggie Jackson. In the end, the Thunder are an elite team and Maynor's play probably won't make a difference one way or another, but I had to pick someone.

The Denver Nuggets

http://www.nba.com/nuggets/

This Week's Games: 3-1

1. Loss @ LA Clippers 112-100

2. Win vs LA Lakers 126-114

3. Win @ Dallas 106-85

4. Loss vs Memphis 81-72

Next Week's Games: Projected Outcome 1-1

1. vs LA Clippers on Tuesday at 9:00

2. vs Minnesota on Thursday at 9:00

Denver's length and athleticism is among the best in the league. If they can turn games into track meets only the Thunder, Clippers and Heat have a chance to consistently beat them. This week they sped up the pace against the Clippers, Lakers and Dallas. Only the Clippers had the horses to match up with the Nuggets in an up and down game. Memphis, however, was able to slow down the pace handing Denver the loss. This week they will need hot shooting in order to beat LA and should easily beat Minnesota if they can push the pace.

Overachiever: No One
Key Statistics: 7th in offensive rating (3rd last year), 21st in defensive rating (20th last year)

Initially my thought was Kenneth Faried was the overachiever. However, after looking at his numbers the only thing that went up was his minutes, his effectiveness is the same as last year. Ty Lawson has increased his assists but his scoring and percentages have went down. This team is better than it is playing right now, but as of now this team is underachieving as a whole.


Underachiever: Andre Iguodala
Key Statistics: 103 offensive rating, .079 win shares/48, 17.9 turnover % (all career worst), .531 True Shooting %,  18.8 assist rating, 14.6 PER (second worst of career)

Iguodala was supposed to come to Denver and put them over the hump. Iggy has fit in seamlessly with Denver, but not in a good way. Right now Denver is playing  at about the same level that they were last year even with Iguodala. He hasn't exactly played terrible but the expectations were that he would be the final piece to make them a contending team. Two of the best indicators of play via advance statistics are win shares and rating per 100 possessions, Iguodala has posted the worst numbers of his career in both these statistics. If Denver is to be the team we hoped they would be they need more from Iguodala

The Portland Trailblazers

http://www.nba.com/blazers/

This Week's Games: 1-2

1. Loss @ Sacramento 108-96

2. Win vs Sacramento 109-91

3. Loss @ LA Lakers 104-87

4. Win vs Philadelphia 89-85

Next Week's Games: Projected Outcome 1-2

1. @ New York on Sunday at 7:30

2. @ Toronto on Wednesday at 7:00

3. @ Memphis on Friday at 8:00

To this point in the season Portalnd has showed that they are better suited in a game where they slow down the pace and hold the other team to a low score. This week they held Sacramento and Philly to under 100 points and won, their two losses came when they gave up over 100 points to the Lakers and the Kings. This week they have a tough schedule playing all three games on the road. They should be able to slow down the pace against Toronto but will fail to do so against New York. Memphis however loves to play in a slow down pace and should beat the Blazers.

Overachiever: JJ Hickson 
Key Statistics: 116 offensive rating, 11.0 rebounds a game, .557 field goal percentage 

Hickson was released by Sacramento last year, and was all set to go to Golden State as a free agent. Portland stopped this by claiming Hickson off waivers. Hickson should count his lucky stars because he has really found a home in Portland. Last year he came in and immediately contributed for Portland. This year he improved upon his good numbers and is on the verge of a break out season for Portland. He is scoring more efficiently than ever in his career. On top of that Hickson is rebounding better than ever, which is necessary considering they moved him to the five this year. Most importantly Hickson is providing something that can not be quantified statistically, he's bringing immense energy to the Blazers.


Underachiever: Luke Babbitt
Key Statistics: 4.3 ppg, .380 fg%, 100 offensive rating, 10.7 per

 I could have picked anyone on the Blazers bench, but went with Babbitt because he was supposed to be the best scorer off the bench. The Portland starters are among the best in the league in scoring but their bench is near the worst. Babbitt is looked to do nothing besides score and he has had trouble doing that for Portland. The Blazers will need more from their bench in order to compete for a playoff spot, Babbitt is the most likely contributor if they are to find one on their team.

The Minnesota Timberwolves

http://www.nba.com/timberwolves/

This Week's Games: 1-2

1. Loss @ New York 94-91

2. Loss vs Houston 87-84

3. Win vs Phoenix 111-107

Next Week's Games: Projected Outcome 1-1

1. @ Utah on Wednesday at 9:00

2. @ Denver on Thursday at 9:00

The Timberwolves, were 1-2 this week but they were competitive in every single game. With their defense they are able to keep every game close. Having a healthy Rubio will be the difference between close losses and close wins. Rubio has missed games recently returning from a knee injury and when he has played he has played limited minutes. If they are to move up the standings it will be on the back of Rubio. This week I expect them to split games in Utah and Denver depending on how they are able to control the pace. 

Overachiever: Nikola Pekovic 
Key Statistics: 16.1 ppg, 8.3 rpg, 103 defensive rating, 12.4 turnover percentage, 23 % usage rate 

Nikola Pekovic has arrived on the scene and I don't mean as the villain in Superman. He has improved in most of the areas you look for from the center spot. His scoring and rebounding have went up in his third nba year. As those numbers went up his turnover percentage and defensive ratings went down. With the injury to Rubio he has stepped up to take a larger share of the offense increasing his usage rate. Pekovic has been great this year and not just at wearing sweet hats.

Underachiever: Derrick Williams
Key Statistics: 22.9 usage rate, 102 defensive rating, 8.2 points per game.

Derrick Williams came out of college as an elite prospect, getting drafted at the number two spot overall. His talent was expected to fit next to Kevin Love and push Minnesota over the top. Right now he looks to be either a wasted pick or a bad fit for Minnesota. He is a player who really misses Ricky Rubio, his athleticism and length lends itself to the fast break basketball that Rubio creates. Williams this year has increased his usage rate which decreasing his scoring and defensive rating. Williams is young and should improve but at this point it might make sense for him to do it an another uniform.

The Utah Jazz

http://www.nba.com/jazz/

This Week's Games: 1-2

1. Win @ Orlando 97-93

2. Loss vs Golden State 94-83

3. Loss vs LA Clippers 116-114

Next Week's Games: Projected Outcome 1-2

1. @ LA Clippers on Sunday at 9:30

2. vs Minnesota on Wednesday at 9:00

3. @ Phoenix on Friday at 9:00

The Utah Jazz are currently in a funk. They have a lot of very good players but no great players. With Jefferson and Milsap in the last year of their contracts a trade seems imminent. The problem is Utah fans will not suffer a losing season without stringing up the general manager. Expect them to try to deal Jefferson and Milsap in a move to get them a player that can help them win right now while giving Kanter and Favors more playing time. This week they start out with a tough game against LAC on the road, a game I do not expect them to with. Utah will continue its poor play and lose to Minnesota who should presumably have Ricky Rubio back. Their only win of the week will come against Phoenix who is even more of a mess than Utah.

Overachiever: Gordon Hayward 
Key Statistics: 13.3 ppg, 17.7 ppg/36, .370 3p%, 4.0 3pa

Gordon Hayward is a perfect fit for Utah, and it's not just because he's a white guy playing Salt Lake City. He plays very good defense, can shoot and is a match up problem for most two's in the league because of size. Hayward has improved his scoring in less minutes than last year mostly by taking more three pointers a game and making a higher percentage. His play along with that of Kanter and Favors will allow the Jazz to be competitive in the future. 


Underachiever: Alec Burks
Key Statistics: 4.6 point per game, .372 efg%, 95 offensive rating

In his first year Alec Burks looked to be the real deal. However, in his second year he has taken a step backwards. His Points assist rebound steals and shooting are all down from last year. This might have to do with his reduced minutes since the Jazz upgraded in the back court with Foye and Mo Williams in the off season. Now that Mo Williams is out for a prolonged period of time he should get more minutes, if he is not able to improve upon is play it could seal the doom of a young NBA career.


Last Week's Prediction Record: 8-5
Season Prediction Record: 19-9