With the playoffs around the corner NBA teams are gearing up for their post season runs. As fans it is fun to project playoff match ups, handicap favorites and throw out predictions with the hope of looking smart.
As I am writing this I am watching Shaq on the TNT halftime show advertising for the Heat Pacers game this sunday. While doing so he made a very telling statement "A lot of people around the league believe the Pacers have the best chance at beating the Heat (in the east)" This sentiment makes sense, since the Pacers have fluctuated between the second and third seed in the east all year.
In closely following the Pacers all year I have an entirely different view, I expect them to be the first high seed to go home early. The Pacers defense and rebounding is elite (although you could make the argument that their 29th most difficult schedule in the league helps) but a woeful offense will be their in the NBA tournament. In this post I will attempt to point out the Pacer's specific deficiencies that would cost them.
Turnovers: The Pacers committed 926 turnovers thus far this season, that is good for 21st in the league, not a positive ranking but not an awful one either. However, this number looks better than it is because the slow pace of Indiana (26th slowest pace) allows for less offensive opportunities which lead to less opportunities for turnovers. To adjust for pace, we look to their turnover percentage (the percentage of turnovers committed per offensive possession) which has them more accurately at 27th in the league.
That last paragraph should have conveyed the message that the Pacers do not take good care of the basketball. This problem should only be magnified when Indiana is facing stiffer playoff competition, more likely than the average team to create turnovers. To me, the main culprit lies within their lack of a floor general to regulate the offense and make sure teammates get the ball in situation that are unlikely to end in turnovers.
Lack of Scoring Opportunities: The lack of a true floor general, does not only hurt the Pacers ability to keep control of the ball, it also ensures that their scoring opportunities are more difficult. The Pacers are full of players who can score if good conditions such as driving lanes, open shots or fast break opportunities exist. Unfortunately for the Pacers this is a team almost entirely devoid of shot creators who make the game easier for their teammates. This is evident when looking at their 27th ranking in assists and field goal percentage.
Although, George Hill is a very good player and a solid scorer his lack of play-making should spell an early exit for the Pacers. This team needs a point guard who is good at attacking the basket to free up his teammates whether it be in isolation or off the pick and roll. Hill happens to be at his worst offensively in these two situations, scoring a reprehensible .6 Points per possession in isolation situations and a mediocre (at best) .89 points per possession as the the ball handler in pick and rolls. Compare that with a .98 points per possession scoring rate overall and it is obvious that George Hill is not the type of point guard to lead this team on a deep playoff run.
As a Pacers fan you might answer this criticism of George Hill and thus your team as a whole by pointing to the emergence of Paul George as improving the quality of shots Indiana takes. Well, in the two areas most likely to end in shots created for teammates (ISO and Pick and Rolls) Paul George is also poor. His .7 points per possession as the primary ball handler in pick and rolls is worse than Hill's and his isolation is only slightly better (that Hill's) at .7.
With their inability to create easy shots for teammates you would expect the Pacers to find alternate ways to score, such as cuts, offensive rebounds and transition hoops. This would be a good intuition but is not the case in practice. The Pacers only get 8% of their offensive opportunities off cuts, 7.2% off offensive rebounds but a solid 11.2% of their offense comes from transition. The problem with their transition opportunities is when they don't score, they often turn the ball over (13.2% of the time) leading to fast break situations for their opponents.
Inability to Score in the Clutch: Just as defenses improve with a heightened effort in the playoffs, they further improve during the end of playoff games. In these situations, teams pressure ball handlers, contest passing lanes and generally rotate better defensively. This improved play causes offensive sets to be thrown out, with a renewed reliance on star players making plays from the outside in (since improved defense decreases the likelihood of post entry passes). At these clutch junctures isolation, pick & roll, and wing shot creation become even more important.
This lack of clutch scoring shown extremely bright in their most recent game against the Boston Celtics. The Celtics (not exactly an offensive juggernaut themselves) outscored the Pacers 11-0 to end the contest. At times in which they needed their all star scorer, Paul George, to step up and carry them, he was not able to do so. At this point in his career he is ill suited to put the Pacers on his back in the closing minutes. While Danny Granger could help cure these late game scoring droughts, relying on a player who is less than 100% after returning from injury is a tenuous matter at best.
Conclusion The Pacers are an excellent defensive team. The Pacers are one of the better rebounding teams in the league. Despite those two superlatives they are an average offensive team that will have the areas they excel at, constricted by strong playoff defense. With an inability to create good shots, get easy baskets and score through isolation in the clutch don't be shocked if the Pacers go home early this year.
NOTE: All statistics in this article were obtained from basketball-reference.com, 82games.com and mysynergysports.com
Danny Granger, former all-star and poster boy for the Indiana Pacers made his return to the court after missing the whole season with a knee injury. While he only played 19 minutes, and went 1-10 from the field(presumably there would be a little rust), he teammates reacted as if he made the game winning shot, even though the 15-footer put them up 20 early in the 4th quarter.
I am personally in the camp that believe this was definitely pre-meditated, but I think we are all in the camp that this was hilarious.
Nothing like mocking your teammate for some team togetherness. Roy Hibbert raising his arms Rocky style is my favorite part. Let us know yours in the comments.
Trade Rumor Number Two: For our second trade rumor, we built a deal around the player Marc Stein reported as the most likely to be traded. As with all our rumor series, this deal is an extrapolation based on rumor about one of the players involved. This deal would only be made after Granger has played a few games and showed that he is healthy going forward. The trade works salary wise because the Magic have an ample trade exception from the Dwight Howard deal.
Trade Source: Marc Stein "The Orlando sharpshooter is the player, with Gay off the board, most teams cite when asked to name a player who will definitely be dealt between now and the deadline.
Our old friend Ric Bucher recently reported that the Magic want draft considerations or a quality young player still on his rookie contract if they're going to part with Redick, which sure sounds like the sort of wish list Magic GM Rob Hennigan would have been schooled to scribble out at Spurs U. and the graduate program in OKC."
Why for Indiana:
With Danny Granger out for most of the year, the Pacers have found a new leader, Paul George. Thus far, George has had a career year after moving to the small forward position Granger has vacated. Due to this, Granger's name has been rumored to be on the move once he becomes healthy.
The Pacers lack scoring, Lance Stevenson has been a good stop gap fill in at the two spot but Redick would give them the scoring and floor spacing they need. Redick would look great running off screens set by the Pacers two hulking big men, David West and Roy Hibbert.
Andrew Nicholson has shown himself to be a long, post scorer with a throwback game. Nicholson can
knock down jumpers in the pick and pop as well as finish with his back to the basket in the post. After this year David West is a free agent, Nicholson would be great insurance in case he was to leave. This move will improve the Pacers both this year and in the future.
Why for Orlando:
It has been widely reported that the Magic are looking to move JJ Redick. Redick is set to be a free agent after the season. JJ is due for a raise after averaging a career high 15.3 points. He is worth a higher price tag as a player that pushes a contender over the top, but for a rebuilding Magic team it does not make sense to pay a lot to keep a complementary piece.
Granger when healthy has proven that he is a top tier scorer in this league. Elite players do not grow on trees, despite Orlando having a ton of cap room don't expect them to draw a max type player to a rebuilding team this offseason. Granger would give Orlando the number one scorer that the Magic could build around and take pressure off their promising youngsters.
The Central division, at the half way point, is not what it will be at the end. Indiana and Chicago are leading division, primed to jump into the upper echelon once their injured stars return. Detroit is getting better with every game, right now playing like the third best team in the division. Milwaukee is maddeningly inconsistent looking like world beaters one day and bottom feeders the next. Cleveland is not a good team but from game to game shows the promise of a future playoff game. This post ended up being much longer than anticipated, so I'm breaking it in two. In Part one, I will be covering the contending Central teams in the Bulls and Pacers. Part two will cover the rest of the division.
Point Guard: Kirk Hinrich, B 6.5 PPG 5.2 APG 2.8 RPG The Former Kansas Jayhawk will not wow you with his averages. Hinrich has always been known for his defense, and he fits right in with this Chicago squad. Offensively Hinrich also exemplifies everything the Bulls want to do. He moves the ball quickly and decisively, only takes shots when necessary and lets the game come to him. His game might not fit with every team in the league but on the Bulls he is a perfect piece to the puzzle. Shooting Guard: Richard Hamilton, B- 12.0 PPG 2.5 APG 1.8 RPG Richard Hamilton is another player that is well suited for Tom Thibodeau's system. He and Ray Allen are two of the remaining players who make using a screen an art form. The Bulls start two very good screening big men in Joakim Noah and Carlos Boozer who free Hamilton for many jumpers. His B became a B- because of his inability to stay 100% healthy at a time when his scoring is sorely needed to temper the loss of Rose. Small Forward: Luol Deng, A 17.4 PPG 2.5 APG 6.4 RPG Luol Deng was voted an All Star reserve and deservedly so. Deng is one of the best defenders in the league, he rebounds, attacks the hoop, knocks down jumpers and moves the ball when need be. Recently he has been bothered by a tight hamstring, but when he does play there is no one in the league who plays more minutes per game. Deng is a perennially underrated player who is finally getting his due with Derrick Rose injured. Power Forward: Carlos Boozer, B+ 16.1 PPG, 9.9 RPG Boozer is a great offensive power forward. He works the pick and roll to perfection, popping when the defense sags, rolling when the defense jumps out and crashing the boards on every shot. Although he isn't great when given the ball in the post there are few players better on the pick and roll. On top of that he is an excellent off ball screener who routinely frees guards for jumpers. His grade would be higher if he wasn't so pathetic at defense, that coach Thibs has to sub Taj Gabson in on important defensive possessions. Center: Joakim Noah, A+ Noah is what Kevin Garnett was during the Celtic's championship year. A big who can protect the rim and shows so well on the pick and roll that he often prevents the other team from running it. On top of that he is great at ending defensive possessions by securing the rebound. This year Noah has refined his corkscrew shot, making him a threat to score in the mid range. What takes Noah from an A to an A+ is his passing ability. After watching him all season you realize that he is the best passer at his position in the league. Bench: A The Bulls essentially jettisoned most of the players from their bench last year. Normally that scenario happens when a bench isn't performing. In this case it was because their bench was so good the Bulls could not afford to keep everyone. Despite losing stalwarts such as Korver, Ronnie Brewer and Omer Asik the Bull's bench mob is near as strong as last year. Jimmy Butler has shown himself a solid player and top notch defender, Nate Robinson has been a spark plug off the bench (when he plays within himself) and Marco Bellinelli has replaced Korver as a long range shooter that can come through in the clutch. Even with Taj Gibson going through his after contract lull the Bull's have one of the better benches in the league.
Point Guard: George Hill, B 14.5 PPG 4.8 APG 4.3 APG The Good news for Hill is that he has put up career highs in points, rebounds and assists. The bad news? He has nearly doubled his turnovers since last year. To boot he is shooting his worst percentage from the field and from three in his career (excluding his rookie year). Hill has picked up his scoring in the absence of Danny Granger, but for him to get a better grade he needed to keep his career level shooting percentages and create more offense for teammates. Shooting Guard: Lance Stephenson C+
Stephenson was thrust into the starting lineup when Danny Granger went down (with Paul George to the three). As a stop gab measure Stephenson is doing a fine job, knocking down shots and playing solid defense. However, Stephenson is not the type of starter you want on a contending team. If Granger fails to come back 100% and the Pacers are forced to rely on Lance, it could be their downfall. Small Forward: Paul George A+ 17.3 PPG 3.7 APG 7.8 RPG Paul George came into the league a long athletic player with high upside. With these type of players all a team can ask for is steady improvement. George has outpaced this hope, growing by leaps and bounds every year. Not only is he improving every year, his scoring averages have improved every month this year! Which has lead to career highs in pretty much every category while also being elite at the defensive end. With his progression some are even questioning if the Pacers need Danny Granger. Although, this thinking might be out of line, that anyone is uttering these words truly speaks highly of Paul George's game. Power Forward: David West, B+ 16.8 PPG 7.7 RPG 1.1 BPG When David West signed with the Pacers last year, everyone thought it was a nice move. The Pacers were getting a very good veteran on the downside of his career for a reasonable short term contract, and during his first year that's exactly what he was.This year, a full year removed from knee surgery he has brought his game back to his days with Chris Paul. On offense he is being more aggressive, taking more shots and crashing the boards. However, his biggest mark can be felt on defense, where he clogs the lane and helps lead the best defense in the NBA.
Center: Roy Hibbert D
Hibbert has been a complete disappointment this year. After signing him to a long term contract Pacers fans hoped he would improve his game and truly earn his money, no such luck. When Danny Granger went down Pacers fans expected Hibbert to step up and help carry the scoring load, again, no such luck. Hibbert is taking fewer shots, making a lower percentage of those shots and being a general drain on the offense. The only reason he did not get an F, has to do with his defense. By most metrics Hibbert is having his best defensive year as a professional. Even with this Hibbert has been a disappointment.
Bench: C-
Injuries on starters always have a trickle-down effect. Lance Stephenson would be a solid bench piece on a competing playoff team, but with Danny Granger going down he was forced into the starting lineup. This move, has weakened an already weak bench. On a team that struggles to score ideally your bench could provide a consistent pick me up. Although, Gerald Green is capable of having a random scoring explosion they have no players that give them the consistent scoring they need off the bench.
Aaaannd we're back! After some time off due to a new job (check me out on Bleacher Report), your favorite weekly division round up (excluding my Northwest round up) has returned. At this point in the season Indiana and Chicago have separated themselves from the pack. Expect this gap between the Central's rich and poor (talent wise) to grow with the return of injured stars. Milwaukee is around the .500 team we have seen all season and will continue to see. While, Detroit might surprise some people and Cleveland is just bad.
When I was growing up I had a basketball hoop on the street in front of my house. From when I took it out of the box, to when it broke in a storm I would shoot on it every day. Mind you, this was not the nicest hoop, it wasn't exactly ten feet, the back board was dead and the rim slanted to the right, but I loved it. The hoop's deficiencies became a strength when I was shooting on it, for no one knew my hoop like I did. Those irregularities made it unique, and what made it unique made me difficult to beat on it.
How does this relate to the Pacers you ask? Well, with the way they play at home, their court can't be regulation. The Pacers are currently making use of their own proverbial dead backboard, on their way to a 15-3 home record. Since I last covered them, they are 6-0 at home and 1-4 on the road.
The Pacers score nearly six points a game more at home than on the road while giving up over 3 more points a game away from Indiana. That's around a nine point a game difference. To put that in perspective, the Pacers are a plus 8.6 at home, meaning if they played all of their games at home they would be the third best team in the league (behind OKC and LAC). Conversely they are a negative 2.6 on the road, which would leave them slightly worse than Detroit and Toronto.
Indiana's problem all season long has been scoring. Two weeks ago they fooled me into believing this problem was on its way to being fixed. Now looking back I see that their improved scoring was a byproduct of a five game home stretch. If they are to make any noise this season the Pacers need to play better on the road. If they are to play better on the road they need to score more.
Good thing the cavalry is close to arriving, in the form of Danny Granger. According to his coach he is scheduled to return in February:
"Dakich: Do you anticipate him (Granger) back and if so, when?
Vogel: Yeah, we absolutely anticipate him back. He's doing well. His knee is healing and right now they're at the point where they are just trying to increase activity on a daily and weekly basis to make sure it can hold up to the where and tear of the NBA season. And everything has held up pretty strongly so far. I'm not sure what the exact time table is but probably some time early in February."
In his absence Paul George has emerged as a number one option. Taking over the role as, not just the best offensive player on the team, but the best defensive player as well. When Granger returns, the league should watch out. At that time Indiana will have a balanced scoring attack to compliment the stingiest defense in the Association. Until he gets back however, the Pacers will do as they have the entire season, lose on the road and win at home. It is for this reason I expect them to go 1-2 this week.
When the Bulls are most successful their games are more wrestling matches than basketball contests. This season, the Bulls have taken on the personalities of Hawk and Animal, because they are Road Warriors. (see video at the end if you don’t get the reference).
The Bulls are the anti-Pacers, playing much better on the road (11-5) than they are at home (11-10). This disparity is very rare in the NBA but it is not just a statistical anomaly. While traveling on the road a basketball team can become a closed environment. Instead of going home after practice to be with your family, you only have your teammates and they become your family. Without the distractions from home the Bulls players ban together and increase their ball movement, leading to a 4.6 point per game increase in scoring on the road.
Chicago is very similar to Indiana, in that they are trying to do the best they can without their number one scorer. Just like the Pacers, they can see the light at the end of the tunnel. Rose has begun to practice in a limited capacity. When he ramps this up to full contact practice his return will shortly follow. Tom Thibedeaux recently gave some standard coach-speak answers to the Chicago Tribune regarding Rose (responding to a question about how they monitor Rose’s progress)
""We'll do it in pre-practice and post-practice," Thibodeau said. "There are parts of practice where there is contact but it's not extended right now. You're practicing less time. But he's doing fine. "We have a great medical staff. We trust the doctors to map the plan out. He has done a great job following the plan. We're up to date every day. That's normal though. It's not only with him but all the players." (http://articles.chicagotribune.com/2013-01-15/sports/ct-spt-0116-bits-bulls-chicago--20130116_1_tom-thibodeau-derrick-rose-medical-staff)
Not much can be gleaned from these quotes, but the fact that Rose is being discussed at all, means, that he will return sooner rather than later. For the Pacers, the return of Danny Granger will make them a better team. The Bulls are much more reliant on Rose, because he isthe team. With the way this team has played so far this year, there is no doubt that when Rose comes back the Bulls can re-assume their rightful spot in the upper echelon of the NBA.
This weak I expect the Bulls to lose to a hot Boston team (barring Avery Bradley not playing) then beat Memphis and the Lakers on the road. This year the Bulls have shown that they can beat anyone when they bring defensive intensity for the entire game. When they don’t exhibit this trademark they lose to bad team like Phoenix. I expect their defensive intensity to be lacking against a cellar dwelling Detroit squad, who will upset them.
The Bucks just completed stretch of truly mediocre basketball. During this stretch they have looked good while beating Miami, and Chicago. They have also looked bad losing to Cleveland Detroit twice and the, until recently, hapless Lakers.
While gritting through this average stretch the Bucks and Scott Skilesparted ways. In a recent article Gary Washburn sheds light on the situation:
“The reality in Milwaukee is that coach Scott Skiles wanted out months ago, putting his house up for sale in the area and banking that he could get the Orlando job. It didn’t happen, and Skiles had no interest in a contract extension with a roster that is a strange combination of aging veterans, solid but not spectacular youngsters, and the backcourt of Monta Ellisand Brandon Jennings, who can score but can’t defend. Skiles never liked this roster and had lost his zest to coach, so his exit was good for both sides. Skiles wants to coach again, but he has burned bridges in so many locations that it’s hard to imagine him finding a job anytime soon.” (http://bostonglobe.com/sports/2013/01/13/sam-mitchell-tutelage-helped-make-kevin-garnett-intense-player/5qSK7QcaCPrIU7QXv1qNTL/story.html)
Wait, so the record holder for assists in a game didn’t want to coach a back court that doesn’t pass and can’t defender? I for one am shocked!
Apparently Skiles realized before the season what everyone but the Milwaukee front office figured out immediately, that the Bucks are a flawed team. With their recent drop towards .500 hopefully management realizes as well. If this team is to make some noise this season they need to ship either Jennings or Ellis out of town, preferably for someone who can pass the ball.
Expect the Bucks to go 0-2 this week against a team without a bench and another team whose best player hasn’t played all season. These are your 2012-2013 Milwaukee Bucks!
Detroit is in the midst of their best basketball of the season. Since I last penned this piece, the Pistons have beat playoff teams in Miami, Atlanta and Milwaukee (twice). After a horrid start to the season in which they went 0-8 to open the gates, the Pistons have only been three games under .500. While their record is not indicative of a team competing for a playoff spot, their recent six game win streak, is.
The Pistons will be in the playoff hunt when the season is in its closing days. On face value, that is an outrageous statement, but when looking at the other teams competing for the 8th spot, it makes sense. Right now Detroit basketball is in the 11th spot but only 2 games out of the 9thspot.
Of the teams ahead of them competing for the 8th spot, they are the best team. Milwaukee will fall apart due to a lack of ball movement or talent gutting trade. Orlando is not very good, residing in the 10thspot mostly because of their good start. Philadelphia will be the biggest threat but in the end it will end up being a lost season after building their team around someone who is out most of the year. If it comes down to it, I think Detroit would beat all these teams head to head.
With a team so young they will only get better with experience as the season runs its course. By the end of the year they will be the best team among those competing for the last playoff spot, the question is will their early season struggles be too much for them to overcome.
This week the Pistons will lose to Boston, against a Celtics team with revenge on its mind following a loss earlier in the season. The Pistons will finish up the week beating a below average Orlando team and knocking off a Chicago team that won’t have their switch in the on position against Detroit.
Not sure what insight I can give about the Cavs, other to say they are bad and a few years away from turning things around. The most logical direction I could go in would be to explain the things that make them so bad.
Cleveland is a team bereft of veteran presence. When Anderson Varejao went down so did any chance of sustained success this year. Young players are prone to mistakes, the more young players you have, the more likely a mistake is on any given possession.
To be fair, their poor play should not shock anyone. We knew coming into the season that they were too young to compete. What has been surprising is the way they have been bad. If I told you that a basketball team has a star point guard any rational basketball fan would expect an up tempo fast break team. This is exactly what I thought before looking at the statistics.
It is shocking to find out that once Kyrie Irving came back this team has been far more successful in low scoring defensive games. An optimist would say that this shows the Cavs have great defensive potential. While a realist would admit that they can’t make heads or tails of this team other than to say they are awful. Since they are awful I expect them to go 0-3 this week.
Outro
Thanks again for reading. You can expect the next edition of this column on Thursday. Check out Bleacher Report, using the link above or just search my name under BR. You can also expect my weekly Northwest Wrap up on Saturday and our Podcast should be up Sunday (If not I’m going to murder Brian and destroy the podcast to protect my innocence). I promise that the round ups will be shorter next week. Now for your viewing pleasure the Road Warriors!
