NBA Draft Prospect Watch: ACC Tournament

The ACC tournament starts today at noon with Boston College taking on  Georgia Tech at the Greensboro Coliseum in North Carolina. The conference tournaments provide the world with one last chance to watch the premier teams on a neutral floor before March Madness starts. Filling out a solid bracket usually starts by understanding who is playing their best basketball to end the season, and there is no better place to ascertain this than, the conference tournaments.

For NBA fans the conference tournaments have an additional function. These tourneys allow players  to begin a meteoric rise that could lift an athlete to the first round, or on the flip side show the holes in their game that prove they are not NBA material.

Since I am Boston College basketball fan, I make sure to watch as much ACC basketball as my time allows. With some knowledge of the Atlantic Coast draft prospects I give you the top five prospects to look out for in the ACC tournament (in no particular order)

Erick Green
Virginia Tech
Combo Guard

PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	BPG
25.4	4.1	3.9	.482	0.2

NBA Comparable: Jason Terry
NBA Role: Bench Microwave Scorer

Green has had an outstanding season. Despite playing on an awful team he was able to capture the ACC player of the year trophy, which usually goes to the best player on the best team in the conference. Green is a superb scorer, with good straight line speed to the hoop. He also has a wide array of off the dribble moves that he uses to create space for his high releasing jump shot.

Being that he is already 22 years old he lacks the upside of some of his draft counterparts. What he lacks in upside he makes up for by being a professional scorer (even in the college ranks). If he is drafted by a team that allows him to provide bench scoring and doesn't ask too much he should excel. If a team drafts him to be their point guard and asks him to get his teammates involved he will flounder in the league. Expect him to go in the second round due to the NBA's recent phobia of college Seniors.
 
Alex Len
Maryland
Center

PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	BPG
11.8	8.1	0.8	.526	1.9

 NBA Comparable: (a poor man's) Pau Gasol
NBA Role: Skilled Finesse Big Man

Alex Len is a enormous prospect that doesn't come around often. Standing at 7'1 and weighing 255 he looks every bit the part of an elite center in the NBA, that combined with his youth (19 years old) screams potential. On top of his physical make up, Len is an extremely skilled post player, possessing good touch around the basket, and the ability to score over both shoulders in the post.

Despite the glowing previous paragraph, Len has failed to live up to his elite potential in his two years at Maryland. There are two reasons for this, the Terapin guards have not been getting him the ball in good scoring position and his inability to get deep post position. The latter reason is extremely troubling. Game after game Len was pushed out of the paint by players who were smaller but stronger than him. If Len can get stronger so that he can receive the ball in a position to score, he will be a very good NBA player.

Mason Plumlee
Duke
Power Forward

PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	BPG
17.2	10.3	2	.589	1.5

NBA Comparable: Taj Gibson
NBA Role: Uptempo Power Forward

Mason Plumlee is a perfect example of scouts having too much film on a four year player. As is often the case Seniors are viewed more harshly than younger players, after playing four seasons scouts have had the opportunity to see every fault of a player. As careers progress Seniors are viewed more on what they can't do than what they can, where with freshman weaknesses can be dismissed due to inexperience.

Plumlee is one of the best players in the ACC. He leads an elite team in an elite conference. He has the length to finish at the rim on offense and bother shots on defense. He can finish with either hand, in the post and can occasionally knock down the mid range jumper. However, all of this is diminished because he has less upside the his younger counterparts in the draft.

Through his college career Plumlee has been a strong, steady force for the Blue Devils. Although, there were games where he was shut down, the positives far outweigh the negatives. Despite being a very good college player, his game is tailor made for the NBA. His length, athleticism and ability to run the floor will allow him to flourish in the wide open professional game.

James McAdoo
North Carolina
Forward

PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	BPG
14.6	7.6	1.2	.448	0.4

NBA Comparable: Thaddeus Young
NBA Role: 3/4 Match Up Nightmare

McAdoo is exactly the type of player that scared teams to death 10 years ago, the dreaded tweener. Fortunarely for him, the NBA has changed in the last ten years. Before every team in the league had someone who could score from the low post, now those true post scorers are in the single digits. This lack of post scoring is a great thing for McAdoo, who could be exposed on the defensive end for his lack of height. The league today simply does not have the players to take advantage of this deficiency.

While McAdoo might not have the length to effectively defend in the post, he has the strength, athleticism and the motor to be an effective rebounder. Rebounding has replaced post defensive as the most essential skill for power forwards and McAdoo has this skill in spades. On offense he is relentless in attacking the glass, on defense he consistently boxes out which might not help his individual rebounding numbers, but it does help Carolina's overall rebounding numbers.

 At the four in the NBA, McAdoo will use his speed to get a plethora of baskets in transition. He will make it in the league as an energy player getting offensive rebounds and playing hard.

C.J. Leslie
North Carolina State
Small  Forward

PPG	RPG	APG	FG%	BPG
14.9	7.5	1.4	.531	1.2

NBA Comparable: Tyrus Thomas/Hakim Warrick
NBA Role: Athletic Small Forward off bench

A great athlete who can take over games by being active. Unfortunately his activity level wanes from time to time. In the NBA this inconsistent effort will get him a one way ticket to the bench. If he is able to bottle his athleticism and make sure his motor never stops he could be a very good player.

Despite playing power forward in college Leslie is of too slight build to play the same position in the pros. Everyone would back him down in the paint and get layups, just like they do to Hakim Warrick. The difference between their games to me is the quickness and strength of Leslie, which I believe will allow him to play defense in way Warrick has not been able to in the pros.

At this point and time his game is strictly about length and vertical, but with work he could develop a consistent face up game to go along with his god given talents. With his high upside he could easily get hot in the tournament, and his stock could skyrocket.

NBA Draft Prospect Watch

This draft looks to be a deep draft in terms of talented rotational players, but there looks to be a dearth of star power at the top.  I won't yet put out a mock draft, not until tourny time in March, but for now let's look at the top ten collegiate players that look to be lottery locks:



1. Nerlens Noel (6'11" PF/C): Noel, in his freshmen year at Kentucky, has showed scouts that he is the elite defensive force as was his billing when he graduated high school.  Noel not only blocks shots (3.5 per game) but he also does a great job rebounding.  What separates Noel from other tall physical specimens is his motor.  Noel has an incredible effort level allowing for activity on both the offensive and defensive glass, an ability to alter any interior offense by Kentucky opponents, and to get easy buckets in transition.  While Noel struggles to find an offensive game outside of easy dunks/layups, he does have a smoothness with the ball that leads me to believe he will develop a quality jump hook shot.  He has excellent hands and good footwork, but is not a good jump shooter. I don't ever see him being an elite offensive player, but as he adds pounds to his thin frame and fills out, I see him being an elite defender at the next level. He is certainly not the most skilled player in the draft, but he is a PF/C and those are hard to come by, so size wins against the superior skill level of the next guy on my list.

2. Shabazz Muhammad (6'6" SG/SF): What Shabazz lacks in elite athleticism he makes up for with hard nosed physical play, intelligence  and an enormous wing span which spans nearly 7 feet.  As a shooting guard/small forward combo, he is one of the top players in the country at getting to the rim whether off the ball cutting or with the ball in his hand.  He has excellent footwork and seems to effortlessly get his shot off.  After being suspended at the start of the season for UCLA by the NCAA due to an investigation into improper benefits, Shabazz returned to action looking out of shape and sluggish  but quickly turned his game around.  He is averaging nearly 20 points and 5 boards a game on 50% shooting.  Speaking of his shooting, he is a much better shooter than I was anticipating after watching his high school film.  As mentioned above, his length is a huge plus as it allows him to cover bigger multiple positions defensively. He needs to work on his right hand though, as the lefty struggles when forced to his off hand. He has the ability to be one of the true star players in this draft. I could see him being a similar player to James Harden.

3. Alex Len (7'1" C): This is one enormous man.  Still only a sophomore  he needs to fill out his frame a little more by adding both lower and upper body strength, but the skill set is there for this guy to be an offensive force at the NBA level. He is averaging 13.3 points per game but only playing 25 minutes per contest as his conditioning needs to improve.  He has a very solid back to the basket game and great touch around the hoop.  He also has a decent mid range jump shot.  He will definitely be a player who will need a year of seasoning to get into NBA shape but his high skill level and size should give him a long NBA career.  Check out these highlights from the Kentucky game to get an idea of what he brings to the table:

4. Cody Zeller (7'0" PF/C): By now, you have probably heard a lot about Cody Zeller, either because he is the best player on one of the top teams in the country or because of his family's basketball pedigree.  Zeller will not be a star at the NBA level, but as we all know, size is hard to come by in the NBA, and Zeller could easily be a 15 and 10 type of guy in the league.  He runs the floor with the effortless grace of a small forward and is certainly one of the best big men runners in the country. He has a high basketball basketball IQ and great patience offensively.  He doesn't have the elite athleticism of some other players which will limit him defensively at the NBA level, but he makes up for this with excellent footwork on both ends of the floor. He creates space in his back to the basket game and I would not hesitate in drafting him as he will surely be a solid contributor for many years at the next level. He needs to add strength, like all young big men, and I believe he may struggle to stay out of foul trouble as he adjusts to NBA speeds.  I really like his game though.

5. Ben McLemore (6'4.5" SG): McLemore is an elite athlete with a beautiful jump shot (although it's not falling at the rate i'd expect).  He projects to be a lockdown defender as well.  He has a great NBA body, but could add some more strength.  He plays very hard, going to the basket sacrificing his body and diving for loose balls defensively.  His best asset right now is his ability to slash and get to the basket in the uptempo game.  He doesn't have the longest of wingspans at just 6 foot 7 inches (he is 6 foot 4 and one half inch tall) but relies on a very quick release on his jumper which will be crucial at the next level.  As mentioned above his shot, while very beautiful looking, hasn't been something he is able to consistently knock down. I'm excited to see how he fares against tougher talent in the conference and field of 64 tournaments, but I think he has the ability to also be a star at the next level.

6. Anthony Bennett (6'7" PF):  The Hottest name rising on NA+BA draft boards right now is UNLV's Anthony Bennett.  This undersized, but incredibly strong PF has all the tools to succeed at the NBA level. He is undersized at 6'7" but has a 7'1" wingspan.  He shoots 74% at the rim, top ten in the NCAA so his height has not limited his ability to finish down low  He is as versatile a scorer as you will find as he can score in the post or stretch the defense and shoot 3's. His mid range game as a turn and shoot player is also exceptional.   I see a lot of Paul Milsap in his game. Can he defend 3's at the next level? probably not, so he will likely stay at the 4, but man. this kid can score. 2 inches taller and he'd be the number one pick hands down. Needs to improve defense and positional rebounding.  Check out this amazing highlight video/draft video for this kid by draftexpress:

7. Alex Poythress (6'7" SF): Poythress is one of those guys that is hard not to love.  He is an outstanding defensive player who can guard multiple positions, is great at penetrating and getting to the rim, and is a great rebounder.  An elite athlete, what holds Poythress back from being a few spots higher is that he is not a good shooter and will need to add strength to be able to guard NBA small forwards.  He always seems to be the aggressor on the court, putting the defense on its heels, but it's hard for him to take advantage of it without being a knockdown shooter. He finishes at the rim with great power and touch when necessary   He should be a solid role player/energy guy in the pros.

8. Michael Carter-Williams (6'5" PG): Without question the top PG in the country, MCW is a rare combination of size, court vision, ball handling and unselfishness.  He was a top flight scorer out of high school and was a backup point guard his freshmen year at Syracuse  but has re-secured his spot among the top players in college basketball with his play this season.  He is averaging 10 assists and 3 steals to go along with 12 points this season.  He has incredible court vision and seems calm with the ball in his hands.  He is not a great shooter right now, but has a great tweener/floater shot in the lane.  He can score from anywhere, but just needs to find consistency on his jump shot.  He has amazing quickness his first few steps giving him great separation ability. When he adds strength in prepping for the NBA draft, his stock could skyrocket.  His length and handle bring to mind former lottery pick Shaun Livingston, but i believe MCW has a much better chance to be a good pro after being seasoned at Syracuse for two seasons.

9.  Tony Mitchell (6'8" PF): Mitchell has been on the NBA scouting scene for awhile now, but he has seen his stock take a huge hit with his poor play this season.  I still like Mitchell and have kept him in my top ten despite his woes this season.  An athletic specimen with a 7'3" wingspan he plays above the rim and is an excellent shot blocker.  His length also allows him to be a terrific rebounder and finisher in the transition game. He can score back to the basket or take his man off the dribble displaying great speed for a big man.  He does come with quite a bit of baggage however.  He was forced to sit out his first two seasons as he was academically ineligible. He also has been labeled a low or inconsistent motor guy, something that is never good to hear. Despite all his issues, I think he has a bright NBA future if he can be motivated perhaps even a Kenyon Martin type career.

10. Mason Plumlee (6'11" PF): Plumlee's game is perfect for the NBA.  He is just an average shooter from any sort of distance, but that's one of his few weaknesses right now.  He has an excellent motor to combine with elite athleticism.  He is both a terrific positional rebounder as well an athletic above the rim rebounder. One knock that followed him into this season is that he was not a part of the Bluedevils offensive gameplan and relied solely on fast break points or offensive rebound putbacks.  He has put that to rest somewhat this year as he has been given many chances to score in the post. His stats have jumped from 11 and 9 last year to 19 and 11 this year. He can score with either hand down low, is a solid passer, and is an improving shooter.  If he slides to a playoff team, he could have a big time immediate impact in the NBA. Once he adds some strength i see him as a double-double guy in the league.

Just missed but could climb second half: Archie Goodwin, Isiah Austin, James McAdoo, CJ Mccolum, Otto Poter, and many more.

Next time I'll look at some more prospects and catch you up on anyone making waves with NBA scouts. Let me know what you think in the comments.